The 2025 Toyota Tacoma is the only new truck that still offers a manual transmission – and it’s only available optionally with the double cab/TRD Sport configuration that stickers for $42,200. Since the base Tacoma SR Xtended cab stickers for $31,590 the manual is a de facto $10,610 option.
That’s a pretty high price to pay for what was once the standard transmission in most trucks.
Of course, that was 20 years ago – when you could still buy a compact-sized pickup (none of those are for-sale new anymore) and basic Work Truck iterations of full-size trucks that only cost about $20k, too. Yes, really. The base price of a 2004 Ford F-150 regular cab – with a 4.6 liter V8 engine – was $21,455. The base price of a current F-150 (with a 2.7 liter V6) is $37,450. You do get a touchscreen included as standard.
What the Hell happened?
Arguably, we got superficially affluent. Meaning, we – not all of us, but enough of us to create a rip-tide effect that carries the rest of us along with it – got ok with financing way more than most of us probably ought to be financing. Evidence in support of this assertion being the fact that loan durations have increased by two years on average over the past 20 years. Six years being the current average duration of a loan on a new vehicle. Increasing the number of months it takes to pay off a loan is a way to reduce the monthly payment cost, which is a way of making a vehicle feel more affordable to the borrower than it really is. Put another way, it’s a way to make the borrower feel comfortable buying a more expensive vehicle he’d have shied away from if he’d have to pay the loan off in five rather than six years.
This gives the appearance of affluence – via the proliferation of fancy vehicles such that it appears everyone (just about) can afford one. In reality, many – probably most – of the people you see driving these fancy vehicles (especially fancy trucks) are as the old TeeVee commercial used to put it, in debt up to their eyeballs.
They have nice things but they don’t really have them because they don’t actually own them. That $60,000 truck they’re driving is kind of like a $500 per night hotel room in that they’re both rentals and if you don’t make the payment, your affluent appearance will disappear like Cinderella’s crystal carriage.
But there’s a lag time in between that happening and the ball Cinderella attended. It’s a fun party while it lasts.
We are probably on the cusp of the crystal chariot turning into a pumpkin and maybe it already has. A $42k Tacoma – if you want it with a manual – is probably beyond the means of enough people who might want one to create a rip-tide effect in the opposite direction. Maybe Toyota (and this goes generally, because all the new trucks are as expensive as luxury sedans were 20 years ago) will go back to offering less fancy trucks – with standard manuals – that more people could afford.
In order to, you know, sell more trucks. That used to be the goal of every truck maker. 
It would be very interesting to see what would happen if Toyota were to offer the $13,000 HilLux Champ – which comes standard with a manual – it sells everywhere else here. The availability of the Champ would certainly be an inducement to sell Tacos for less and maybe that’s why Toyota doesn’t sell the thing here. (Technically, Toyota isn’t allowed to sell the thing here because the Champ is not compliant with all the federal “safety” and “emissions” rigmarole; but it could probably be made compliant and still be sold for less than $20k.)
The manufacturers have gotten fat on selling high-margin vehicles (especially trucks) that the majority of those who buy them can only swing if they push the payments out to six years or longer. But we are now in lean times, though you wouldn’t know it to look at what’s available on the dealership lots – and what they’re asking for these things.
What cannot continue won’t continue.
The only question now is – for how much longer?
. . .
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I drive a 1993 Toyota truck that we bought in 2002 . Just turned 200k miles. I told my wife just to bury me in that truck . She said, “I thought you wanted to be cremated? ” I replied….”It has an ashtray !!”
Do the new Toyotas come with the BMG .50 cal mount standard, or as an option?
Asking for a friend….
Toyota does NOT sell the Champ “everywhere else” but the USA. It’s only sold in Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines and Peru so far in the 2 years it’s been available. It’s not intended to be a broadly marketed truck since it would undercut sales of the mainline IMV vehicles – Hilux, Foretuner, Innova – globally. It’s a cheap truck intended for emerging markets as an alternative to a kei truck, tuktuk or scooter.
I don’t know much about the actual cost to manufacture any specific vehicle, but find it odd that comparable vehicles are priced the the same ballpark.
This seems to reflect housing prices. No realtor can tell you the price of a house. What they can tell you is what comparable houses have sold for, then price a specific house based on that.
Has this method led to price creep in vehicles also? I asked AI about this and it turns out, yes, the final selling price is heavily influenced by what comparable new cars are selling for in the local market.
So what is the price of a car? No one knows, but also no one cares. They just want to know if they can afford the payment.
Lending, like in college and housing, has driven up the price.
AI largely, but not exclusively, tells you what you want to hear, and when it doesn’t know the answer it makes one up statistically. This is based on what is essentially a Google search followed by a trend analysis that looks for the strongest correlation (correlation is not causation). It cannot distinguish between good and bad data, it cannot tell the difference between a real and a spurious correlation, it cannot use data that is not in its training data set, and it fundamentally assumes that “truth” is a statistical average of whatever is in the data set. Then those results are run through a (necessarily incomplete) filter that is designed to prevent it from saying any of the embarrassing non-PC things it has said in the past, and “usually” works (that’s what a “guardrail” is).
When it tells you what it “thinks” the answer is, it can’t really tell you why it reached the conclusion that it did. In order to do that you would have to go back and re instruct everything, using the original set of (pseudo-)random number seeds.
AI has some uses but for all intents & purposes it is a black box. It’s not the basis of rigorous work. It can sometimes be used to explore avenues for rigorous work, but it is not a substitute for actual knowledge, hands-on experience, creativity, or critical thinking. Especially the hands-on experience and critical thinking parts, because all too often the results it gives you are completely full of shit.
“Remember, kids, extrapolation is dangerous and interpolation is only slightly safer.”
—Science
Very low mile twenty year old Toyota Tacomas with manual transmission are regularly posted on CL for thousands more than they stickered for.
Gold. Silver. Tacoma.
I own an older Tacoma with a stick, a 2007 that I got in 2014. At the time Toyota was changing production over from 05-15 models to 2016 so I was trying to have my dealer order a new 2015 plain jane with a stick but the order was never filled. They eventually found out the model change was coming up in 2015 to a new generation and production was only using remaining parts. They dropped the 4 cylinder/5 speed extended cab option in 2016. You could still get this base truck but it was automatic only. Part of the reason for this is it’s not a big seller into the retail market but it’s huge in fleet sales. Orkin or the numerous city fleets are just never going to buy a stick shift truck so it makes sense from Toyota’s perspective. They sell manuals in the trucks that people still want them specifically. In my case the truck ended up being a V6, TRD Offroad, extended cab. So it was the complete opposite trim level I was looking for but I’ve rather come to like the V6. The truck it replaced was a 4 cylinder 1993 that I had worn out. It didn’t have cruise control, that would have been pointless, and the A/C had to be turned off on any serious incline. I’d made a little sticker for the A/C button called “Turbo” in fact.
Obama’s $8,000 first time home buyer credit along with 3% down mortgages put an effective floor of $240k under any real estate which would pass inspection within reasonable — say, an hour — of the major metro areas in the US.
Everyone who “owns” their home feels wealthy.
The Democrats want to compound the error with a $20,000 tax credit, which combined with the right mortgage environment would make “homeowners” with reasonable retirement savings into paper millionares.
Also, trucks are statements of manhood,particularly among certain demographics.
Mama will let Papi have his “man’s” truck as long as the F&I room can keep payments under $500. A $40,000 MSRP is just on the edge of being possible for those households, but the finance shark will have to be clever.
Gonna need a bigger boat.
Been watching the videos of a finance manager at a Mercedes dealer in Ohio. It’s insane what people are doing to get into very expensive vehicles they clearly cannot afford. Then they show up with vehicles with twenty, thirty or over forty thousand of negative equity to trade in…. Expecting to leave with a new vehicle priced from eighty to one hundred twenty thousand dollars. He manages to do it, since he isn’t going to make anything selling used fifteen thousand dollar used Toyota Corollas (which most of these people probably can’t afford either). It’s pretty nuts and it can’t last too much longer.
https://www.youtube.com/@BenzsandBowTies
Interesting video, Rich –
I don’t see how it can go on much longer, either. I have never seen anything like this – i.e., the now-common $50k-plus “transaction” prices of trucks especially…
Okay, somebody give me the “help me see” speech.
Hubby and I spent all weekend looking for used boxed trucks. We drove from Ashland, VA to Sterling, VA and probably looked at close to 30+ trucks.
Coming home yesterday we stop in Manassas. Brand new, never titled 2025 trucks purchased in September 2024 and still on the dealership lots.
https://www.ourismancommercialtrucks.com/new/Ford/2025-Ford-E-350-Cutaway-979ca007ac1820feb659635e293b52de.htm
Click on window sticker to see MSRP.
This is what I don’t understand – internet price $65K…MSRP sticker $41K. We actually contacted one of the salesmen and asked why is the online price $24K more than MSRP. His response to us “I don’t know”. Can anybody explain why commercial trucks are so marked up? After getting home yesterday afternoon we looked at several websites in the region and this is going on everywhere.
Note: NC and MI had a few dealerships that were offering these trucks at MSRP. I can deal with $42K for a commercial truck…$65K or $75K….no go. I feel like we are being totally scammed as a public.
The lesson is take a road trip.
Having moved to Texas from WA State, I’ve been asked several times about the drive down to Austin from Portland by Subaru fanatics who want to shop deals at Gresham Subaru, not far from where Subies are imported into the Northwest at the Port of Vancouver (Vancouver, WA, not Canada. aka Vantucky).
Prepandemic, the numbers were supposed to be quite good for anyone willing to take a risk on a plane ticket. From what I understand, the dealership would even pick up at the airport.
Hi Roscoe,
I have no problem driving down to NC to pick up a “reasonably priced” truck. Three hundred miles to save $25K…no problem. Washington State may be out of my comfort zone though. Although, if the deal is good enough we can always have it shipped. Purchased a few cars out of FL that way…$500 freight…cheaper than the airline ticket.
I’m surprised that fleet sales at one of the local dealerships wouldn’t work with your business for MSRP on a base truck. The idea is that your business will eventually grow if the salesman “leaves some meat on the bone”.
Are the local dealerships all big chains such as Group1, Lithia, or The Geico Gecko’s own growing subsidiary?
I always dissuaded the Subie fans from making the trek down from Portland to Austin. That is a hard three day trip through some remote terrain in places on the most direct route.
Subie fans are die hard, however. One who sits near me at my office, a new grad hired at the company this Summer, drove a Outback purchase down from San Francisco a few weeks ago.
I don’t even think the vehicle was new. And before anyone asks, no, it did not have a manual transmission.
BTW, if any of your clients are contemplating a relo to Vantucky, I suggest they think seriously about *why* they feel compelled to go there.
Several years ago, I considered a remote-work relo to Vancouver WA. The appeal was no-state-income-tax on my earnings, and no-state-sales-tax across the river in Oregon.
And no healthy economic situation on either side of the river if your remote-work relo goes south and you need a new job.
And my experience was pre-Covid. I can’t imagine what it is like now.
RG,
The window sticker you are looking at is for the E-350 cutaway chassis ONLY.
Ford doesn’t provide the box upfit which is done by a separate up fitter or the dealer themselves. That adds many thousands to the cost in addition to the chassis.
Beyond that commercial trucks tend to get bought by business and fleets with a “it’s a write off” tax deduction mentality. This tends to inflate pricing in addition to any other games the dealers is playing with financing and other dealer add-ons. That helps keep prices inflated.
As mentioned by others – if you can buy cheaper in a place like MI where there is more volume of product moving, which has more up fitter’s, and less shipping costs embedded into the truck, go there. Buy & drive back to VA.
Hi BID,
Ahh, so they are not including the Reading buildout. Hubby did mention this yesterday that he believes that could be the additional costs, but MI and NC both had these same trucks (with the box upfits) around the mid 40Ks.
So if I pull this truck up: https://www.randymarionford.com/new-Statesville-2026-Ford-E+450SD-+-1FDXE4FN1TDD03663
I am not getting the additional upfit then although that is shown in the picture? Note: I do have a phone call in to them, but they aren’t open yet for me to actually ask. It would be nice if they included that somewhere on the page. DOES NOT INCLUDE UPFIT.
You are right, BID.
Just confirmed…does not include buildout….adds an additional $20K-25K. Ugh! I hate dealerships even more now. Shouldn’t there be a CYA somewhere on this webpage or am I the only idiot that sees a picture with the Reading buildout and believe what I am seeing is what I should be getting?
Yup
It’s all sort of slimey advertising. No love for dealers here either.
I’ve always found the costs of commercial vehicles / chassis to be a bit on the unbelievable side.
But when you have customers that don’t believe they are actually paying for it and that it’s a “write off”, that inflates pricing.
Then combine that with a captive market where there really isn’t much competition from imports with respect to heavy duty chassis cab manufacturing and you have the market we see.
Hi BID,
My problem is that only five years ago I could get this same truck (with the buildout) for $36K. If I toss in inflation, fiat currency manipulation, etc. than $42K (for all of it) is reasonable in 2025. What is not reasonable is $65K-$75K on the same truck. That’s a 100% increase in five years! They can’t even blame tariffs on this one since they took inventory last year.
I am too much of a cheap ass to pay an extra $20K even if we do have the ability to depreciate it in full.
Oh well, so much for considering new work trucks. Heading back to the used market…let someone else pay for the ridiculous costs.
RG,
“They can’t even blame tariffs on this one since they took inventory last year.”
Come on RG. You know how this works. Tariffs always add cost regardless of whether the product was built prior to the tariff. This is because once the tariff is implemented, the new tariffed price either raises the value of old inventory or that lower cost inventory would quickly be cleared out if offered at the pre-tariff pricing. When dealers have the opportunity to jack up pricing due to tariffs on steel, aluminum, or what ever, they aren’t going to miss that opportunity.
This is why tariff’s are always a tax and why they are universally bad despite any of the propaganda we hear promoting them.
RG
“Shouldn’t there be a CYA somewhere on this webpage or am I the only idiot that sees a picture with the Reading buildout and believe what I am seeing is what I should be getting?”
. . . It’s there.
“Dealer added accessories are extra and not included in sale prices.”
Anything added to the cutaway chassis (like a Reading box buildout) is a dealer installed accessory.
“Dealer added accessories are extra, example bed liner or lift kit.”
Except they provided an example of dealer added accessories. A bed liner, understandable. The entire back end of a truck…not understandable.
Not trying to take the side of the dealers but the fact is that the cutaway chassis is the “vehicle”.
Anything added to it is a dealer added accessory. That is the way the laws are written.
That is why any challenge to that dealer pricing model in a court of law would be thrown out immediately. Doesn’t really matter how dishonest you or I think dealers and their pricing / advertising are. Never forget NADA is an insanely powerful political lobby. Your local dealerships own a significant portion of any local legislature.
Pay up or walk 😉
I trust you’ll find a much better deal in the used market and are wise to let someone else take the massive new vehicle depreciation.
All vehicles are used the moment they roll off the dealer lot.
https://washingtondc.craigslist.org/nva/cto/d/vienna-2006-ford-e350-box-truck-16ft/7888385498.html
Go used!
Since I have zero use for a double cab — I have a 4-door compact SUV for that — I’m not paying up for a Tacoma double cab just to get a manual shift.
It’s just another example of how auto makers have totally lost my interest. Literally nothing they make appeals to me anymore at any price, including FREE.
Instead of reading about 2026 models — *yawn* — my only car-related jollies come from perusing the for-sale ads of 10 to 30-year-old used vehicles. But only the ones with manual shift.
As the T-shirt I’m wearing right now asserts, real cars don’t shift themselves. Take that wimp-ass slush box and shove it where the sun don’t shine.
Same here, Jim –
I was pondering the other day whether I’d keep a new vehicle – any vehicle – were it given to me by a manufacturer. Nah. I’d sell it and buy a nice Crysler Cordoba instead. And use the left-over to to pay for that slab I can’t afford to have poured right now…
I dunno, I think the shift (so to speak) to automatics is just another byproduct of the Boomers. They’re like locusts, devouring everything in their wake. They got standard shifts but as they became middle age and elderly they were wealthy (real or not, doesn’t matter) and could afford automatic transmissions. Why they got them is somewhat irrelevant. Some of it is perception of moving up, automatics used to be an option or standard on luxury models. Age and healthy issues, convenience.
Hard to argue that an automatic isn’t in some cases nice. When I blew my Achilles tendon I had to learn to drive with a walking boot because we only had two cars, both stick shift. Honestly, that was probably not a smart thing, at least it was my left leg so the way I had to tip the boot in, angle it so I could tiptoe the clutch. It was impossible to quickly move the boot so I would never have been able to use it to brake or throttle and a quick exit, nope. In a fiery crash I would have cooked.
Anyway, the Boomer horde had the money to buy cars in the 90s thru today and they opted for automatics almost universally. So the manufacturers brought them down in model range and they’re not stupid, if more of the cars were selling with them, either as an option or simply because a configuration moved, they were going to standardize on it to reduce production costs. Once a model got to 50% the tipping point was hit, the ride down from there is all automatics over time. That’s even true of economy cars. My mother got an automatic Corolla about a decade ago. She was simply not going to drive a stick shift after pops death. I bought his Ford F150 from her and she sold the minivan they also owned (this was an automatic) because didn’t want a big car or stick shifts. But a Corolla? Automatic? It seemed ridiculous. But the saleman said that generation was the last US Corolla to get them. Same with RAV4, no automatics. Subaru used to sell them but it’s now only the WRX. Most of these cars are available in other countries with them still, it’s an American thing. Perception of poverty to be seen driving them.
I dislike Boomers, but come on. They were able to drive stick while Gen X and beyond barely bought cars with stick shift. Boomers don’t make up much of the car market any more.
Gen X and beyond weren’t clamoring for manual transmission vehicles. In fact, Millenials “dislike driving” and Gen Z dislikes drinking.
Of course Millenials are Boomer and Gen X offspring. Gen Z belongs to Gen X and millenials.
I’m GenX. It was getting unusual to drive stick shifts but that was because by the time I was driving there weren’t many of them. It was old cars, econo boxes and trucks. By, say, 1990 what mainstream cars came with a “standard” shift still in significant numbers? Taurus? No. Cavalier? No. Corsica? No. K Cars? No. Anything Buick, Olds, Mercury made? No. Nevermind Caddy or Lincoln. It was rare to find anything new that wasn’t a Honda Civic or Toyota Corolla with a stick shift. That’s because the people buying them in 1990, the Boomers, weren’t buying them. Hell, even the stuff we hot rodded was at least half the time hydramatic or C3 or torqueflite. The fact is American drivers have never really loved manuals universally. Some niches truly did and a lot of people tolerated them. But very few have chosen not option for them for decades.
As I walk down my road each day, I see huge, jacked up pickup trucks with oversize wheels pulling trailers hauling UTV’s that probably cost as much as the truck. I always am amazed at the sheer stupidity of people making huge payments for such things.
Amen, Gary –
I wonder what these people do for a living as no one in my circle makes anywhere enough to afford these things…
I was at the motor sports dealer getting the Harley brakes serviced, they are also a
Polaris dealer. I about fainted when I saw the prices on the enclosed 2 and 4 seaters. $40k was common and there was some “special” (looked the same as others) unit 2 seater with a tiny dump bed for $60k. There was a quad runner for $14k. A miniature motorcycle (think old Honda 70 size) for kids was $3800. Unreal.
Polaris was one of my clients. They are very much a big DEI corporation, and I dropped them after being reamed out by a bitchy blonde for not wearing a mask during the damnpanic.
I would say I don’t know who’s buying their crap but I do, my pothead ex con seasonally employed neighbor bought a big 4 door crew cab one, who lives in a one room shack and is often found wandering the streets babbling. I guarantee no cash was involved.
To top it off they also like to add the (admittedly cool) track systems for another $25k bux.
Damnpanic, I love it! Great turn of phrase!
I know of a better one than that, a local guide purchased a side-by-side Bombardier… price<50000.00. I said how the fuck could you afford that…. wait for it..21 year term. i mentioned he mind be pushing up daisys before the loan was paid out.
In Michigan it’s called the “UAW marriage” where two line workers working regular OT can easily acquire such toys along with a vacation property near their preferred playground. And don’t forget those employee discount plans they get for their trucks.
I’ll pledge to buy that $13,000 Hilux Champ if it’s ever sold here. That’s a roughly $400 monthly payment if you want to be done in 3 years. Then you own outright a still brand-new truck capable of hauling things that nothing I have now can, with wonderful features such as the fold-down bed sides.
Hi BaDnOn!
Wouldn’t it be great? Hell, if one put down $3k, they’d only have to finance $10k and that could be paid off in three years for about $300/month. That used to be what we had.
I bought my ’06 F-150 new in the summer of ’06. At the time the talk was of $5/gal gas by Thanksgiving. When I walked in and said I wanted the bigger V8, super-crew they asked me what I wanted in my coffee. They gave me 6 years at 0% interest.
Why not use their money?
But, I know that’s not the norm these days. As usual you are correct that the madness cannot continue.
BTW, I still have “Big Rouge”.
Once you name them, you’ll never get rid of them. “Old Yeller” my pale yellow ‘79 Pontiac Gran Prix. (Old Yeller died in 2006) “Little Red” the red metallic ‘03 Ford Escape and “Curt” the ‘91 Silverado truck, both still going.
Curt was the truck salesman who, of course, the Commander deemed “hot”.
I refuse to name the ‘18 Jeep, other than uncomfortable.
Sparkey, you are a man of amazing confidence. Naming a truck after the sales guy that your wife thinks is good looking proves that you are either ridiculously self assured or just plain crazy.
When my husband leaves for the day I always remind him not to play with other girls, because other girls have cooties. 😉
Ha! The Commander is extremely jealous and was always in fear of some youngin at work taking over. First off out of respect I’d never do that. The other deterrent was seeing moron guys hose a perfectly good life / wife setup with a fling. One side benefit of the Commander fear was a freshly made lunch to take with me that morning. 5:30AM prepping a nice sandwich the guys at work couldn’t believe it. Then I’d really rub it in “and she’s not fat!”
Always tell my wife that I am just window shopping, eye candy is eye candy. If you choose to walk around with your wares hanging out, I will be looking.
LOL. One can look at the merchandise all they want…it only becomes expensive when you touch it.