Here’s the clip of my get-together earlier this week with David Knight. We talked about the things we’re all talking about – chiefly Trump’s deranged behavior and the consequences attending. My segment starts at about the 3:30 mark.
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Fun with ChatGPT.
I don’t know if David Knight reads these comments (probably not) but he might like trying this. Obviously interest rates are going to go up, way the hell up, because if the US is out of the M.E., and the petro-dollar standard is busted, and if the US is currently at 40 trillion rapidly going to 50 trillion in debt, what are interest rates going to be in the near future?
copy and paste this question:
“if 30 year treasury bonds lost 90% of their value from current levels, what would the yield be?”
ChatGPT said: 54% yield
30-year Treasury price Approx. yield
~$98 5.5%
$80 ~7.1%
$60 ~9.4%
$40 ~13.7%
$20 ~26.9%
$10 ~54%
The relationship becomes extremely nonlinear as the bond price approaches zero.
What everyone needs to know, the USA is financially busted and rapidly moving into banana republic level interest rates.
As rates move up, the stock market will crash. So says https://quoththeraven.substack.com/
see Bonds Are About To Crash The Stock Market
Howdy Jack,
Another indicator I watch is the Treasury yield curve. Currently the ten-year yield of 5.17% exceeds the two-year yield of 4.81%. This is a normal, upward-sloping yield curve.
A frequent precursor of recession is an inverted yield curve. Typically it happens as the Federal Reserve raises its Fed Funds target, currently 3.75% to 4.00%. The two-year yield of about one percentage point higher reflects a bet by investors that the Fed is going to keep hiking, several more times.
When the yield curve finally inverts, it will be the setup for a recession. After seventeen years with only two months of recession (Feb-Apr 2020), the next recession is shaping up to be apocalyptic. Tariff Man Trump will leave office as ‘Hoover II,’ reviled by all.