Mending – But Not Ending – Again

Trump says he is going to “roll back” federal fuel economy standards, which have greatly increased the cost of cars – because it’s not like you can just wave a federal wand and say presto! 35.5 MPG rather than 32 MPG. It takes things like direct injected engines, CVT transmissions (and transmissions with multiple overdrive gears), “mild hybrid” augmentation and so on to squeeze another couple of MPGs out of a vehicle.

Here is what he (or was it Natalie Harp?) said (or rather, posted) the other day:

BIG DAY FOR AMERICAN AUTO WORKERS AND CAR BUYERS! I have just approved new Fuel Economy Standards that TERMINATE Sleepy Joe Biden and Pete Boot-EDGE-EDGE’s ridiculous EV Mandate. The Dumocrats cost our Great Auto Manufacturers $Billions, forced Americans into cars they never wanted, and wasted Billions on Chargers that were never built.

What he does not say is that these standards – Corporate Average Fuel Economy requirements – will be eliminated altogether. He merely promises to roll back the Biden era requirements.

It is another case of the GOP’s “mending” rather than “ending” a federal interference in our lives, which is what CAFE actually is. The requirements compel the car companies to design ever-more-elaborate and expensive drivetrains to comply with the requirements and we get to pay for this compliance, in the form of what the cars cost. These costs include – you may have noticed this – the wholesale diminishment of engine size. The turbo-augmented four cylinder engine has become the nearly-universal engine in mass-market cars, including even mid-sized pick-up trucks. Only one of the four on the market – the ’27 Nissan Frontier – you can read my recent review here – is still available with a six cylinder engine; the rest all use turbocharged (and hybrid-augmented) fours.

Why? 

Because of CAFE compliance pressure. The market – people who buy pick-ups – did not clamor for turbocharged, hybrid-augmented fours. These engines do up the MPGs but they are also part of the reason why new mid-sized pickups now cost as much to start as full-size pick-ups used to cost. It is also why only one of them even still offers a manual transmission – which used to be standard in mid-size pickups such as the Frontier, the Toyota Tacoma, Ford Ranger and Chevy Colorado. Excepting one of the Tacoma trims – an expensive trim – they are all automatic-only now.

Why?

Because manuals – being human controlled – cannot be fine-tuned to shift in such a way as to eke out a slight MPG improvement on government tests, which are the basis for determining CAFE compliance. Automatics can be fine-tuned, via software, to eke out a slight MPG improvement and that’s why the manual transmission has become (curiously) a near-exotic feature, even in trucks. It’s curious because the manual requires a but more attention from the driver than an automatic, which is why – once upon a time – an automatic was an optional luxury feature in most trucks (as well as most economy cars).

The manual cost less, which saved the buyer money. The automatic saves a little gas – but costs the buyer a lot of money. Especially if the automatic transmission ever fails. Manuals need a new clutch every 100,000 miles or so but that’s a relatively inexpensive maintenance item; the transmission itself usually lasts the life of the vehicle. Automatics – which are vulnerable to more problems than manuals – are more failure prone and the cost to replace a modern compliance transmission (e.g., one with electronic controls, multiple overdrives, etc.) can easily be $5,000 or even more.

But you “saved” an extra 2 MPG in the meanwhile.

CAFE is also why large cars are extinct as mass market cars. Only the very affluent can afford the handful still available, because they’re all high-end luxury brand cars such as the BMW 7 Series. CAFE also egged on the SUV boom, because the way the regulations are structured, so-called “light trucks” were subjected to a less onerous “standard.” So the car companies stamped out big SUVs (and big trucks) to meet the market demand for big vehicles that still exists.

CAFE is also a big reason for the existence of electric cars as mass market cars. Since they use no gas at all, each one that is made ups its manufacturers’ overall CAFE “fleet average” MPG number and thereby helps with compliance. Of course, the costs of compliance are just passed along to us – in the form of more expensive cars (and more expensive insurance costs because of those more expensive cars).

CAFE has thus Frankenstein’d the car market. It has created unnatural (government) demand that runs contrary to the demands of the market. Ending CAFE would correct that. It would restore the proper relationship between what the market wants and the car companies make. It would put a stake through the heart of the idea that it’s a legitimate thing for the federal government to be involved at all in decreeing how many miles-per-gallon the cars we choose to buy get. The italics to emphasize that no one is forced to buy a “gas hog.” But people ought to be free to choose one, if that’s what they want. After all, they’re paying for it.

If they want high-mileage cars, on the other hand, the market would assure their availability. CAFE is premised on a fatuity that – were it not for CAFE – there would be nothing but “gas hogs.” This is like saying that if it weren’t for government, there’d be no produce aisle at the supermarket – just bags of chips and sodas!

Anyhow, some people will probably get excited to hear that Trump is “rolling back” the CAFE standards – as they were excited to hear they’d be getting a $5,000 check after the midterms. And that they’d soon be able to buy Tiny Cars, too!

Don’t get excited. It is possible the MPG mandatory minimums will be “rolled back.” It is very unlikely they will be eliminated. Which means they can – and almost certainly will be  – rolled forward at some point in the future, when a new jefe of the blue variety replaces the current red (orange) jefe.

The crux of the problem is that the GOP never challenges anything in principle. It is always a subjective, utilitarian “reform of some sort that promises to make whatever the program is – whether Obamacare or CAFE – more “efficient.”

To mend rather than end.

Which of course is why these interferences never end but only – occasionally – get rolled back a little, for a little while.

. . .

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