Home Features What Does it Portend?

What Does it Portend?

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It’s a little more than a mile from my driveway to the main road that runs down the mountain into town, which for me is Roanoke, VA – about 25 miles distant. There are maybe a dozen other houses on that stretch of road from my house to the stop sign where you turn left or right to get onto the main road.

There are at least two houses along the way that sit empty. One of these has been unoccupied for at least two years now. Someone comes occasionally to cut the grass in summer but otherwise, no sign of people. The other house emptied of people at some point a few months ago. Neither of these houses seems to be For Sale. There are no signs – and no listings, either. I have checked on that. They are just sitting there, empty.

What does it portend?

Maybe a better question is: Who can afford to just “hold” an empty house for months – years? Even if the house is paid off, there are still property taxes to be paid and upkeep, which isn’t inexpensive when you have to pay a service to do those things. Plus keeping the utilities on. Electricity (and propane, which is what is what many people use in my area to heat their homes) is not free, especially in winter. And then again in summer. It’s probably at least $150/month just to keep the power on and the house warm enough inside (during the winter) to keep the pipes from bursting. Property taxes are a couple grand annually. So probably at least $5k – on the low end – in just carrying costs annually.

Most people don’t have pockets deep enough to pay those costs because they also have another house and all of its costs to carry. That is to say, if it is people who – putatively – own these empty homes then those people must be living in a home somewhere else. One that is probably not paid-for since that’s pretty uncommon. That would mean they have a mortgage on that house, plus all the associated costs associated with the upkeep of that house. How many ordinary people can afford that plus the carrying costs of a second home that no one’s living in?

That isn’t being used as a rental, for instance?

That would not be a problem for institutional investors, though. The term refers to the BlackRocks and others that – among other things – have reportedly been buying up residential properties for reasons as yet not exactly known. Not directly, but via stakes held in other fronts for this activity, such as American Homes 4 Rent.

This perhaps provides a clue as to what might be going on.

Maybe it’s just about the money – the possibility of a lot of it, to be made buying up houses at inflated prices, so as to price most people out of the neighborhood and then rent these houses to people who can no longer afford to buy them.

That is one plausible hypothesis.

Another is that these empty homes are being held as investments for a time when money can be made renting them – not to people, per se. Rather to the local government – which will then use “grants” to pay the institutional investor rent and house people who are on the dole in these for-now empty houses. This would serve more than just enserfment purposes. It could be just the thing to make areas that are at present not very “diverse” much more so – by importing “diverse” people into those not-very-diverse areas and installing them in these currently-empty houses.

It is well-established practice to bring “diversity” into urban and suburban areas but it has been a much tougher nut to crack out in the country, where I live. These areas are still for the most part what America writ-large was back in the early ’60s, before immigration laws were altered to change the demographics of America, a process greatly accelerated under Barry Obama and his geriatric front man, “Joe Biden.” That is to say, the are still largely homogenous. Overwhelmingly white and English-speaking.

They are Deplorable, in other words.

And likely to stay that way for many years to come because most of the people who live in these areas stay in them for life and when they die or have to move out of their homes, they typically sell to people similar to themselves, because those are the kinds of people who tend to want to live in Deplorable areas, among fellow Deplorables. It is hard to change that pattern, except unnaturally.

As via buying up country homes and holding them empty – until the time comes to fill them.

This is just my hypothesis. I have no inside knowledge. But I do notice more and more formerly occupied houses no longer occupied and (as far as I can tell) not for sale and not for rent, either.

And it gives me an uneasy feeling.

. . .

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36 COMMENTS

  1. Our monetary system has created a two class society; those flush with cash who are getting richer, and the poor whose standard of living is decreasing due to inflation. The inflation is a transfer of wealth from all the working stiffs without assets, to those people with assets that appreciate.

    Trillions of dollars have been created, and these dollars don’t appear in the economy uniformly. They’re spent into existence via Wall St, the defense contractors, local government agencies, etc. The people who end up with this money spend it (which causes inflation) or invest it (which causes assets to rise in value). Anyone who bought a house, or stocks, or any productive business 20-30 years ago, is quite well off today and looking for investments. The companies which buy up houses are feeding into that.

    I don’t think there’s some government plan. There are the beneficiaries of money printing buying up stuff from the people that are losing their shirts.

    If there’s a conspiracy to do this, it’s a smaller problem because you can “delete” the conspirator, while if it’s a structural problem, it’s much harder, because you don’t have a single point of blame, other than the Treasury/Fed/Congress triumvirate of evil.

  2. Who else in the world would intentionally try to destroy White neighborhoods by filling them up with section 8 and large public housing projects, and turn once high-trust areas into crime-ridden streets where the locals then end up moving away along with the businesses? Who do you think ruined once Irish, Polish, Italian, and other White-ethnic neighborhoods in the north after the War? Who moved them there with the very intent of destroying these cities? We know the answer. No other group has as its goal to ruin western nations via immigration/illegals, pornography, prostitution, abortion and birth control, transgenderism and LGBT agenda, and so on.

  3. I’m sitting in one of those empty houses right now. Parents are in a long term care facility, my sister and I are overwhelmed with the task of emptying out and selling 60+ years of hoarder material. Our plan is to get it ready for sale this spring, but if we don’t have everything sold or accounted for, then what? Rent a storage space? OK, but this is basically a free storage space, so what’s the point of that? If Blackrock showed up with an above-market bid we’d probably take it though.

    My next door neighbor died a few years ago. Her kids own the house now, but live elsewhere. The one son visits from time to time, I don’t recall ever meeting the other son. Rumor around the cul-de-sac is that they disagree about putting it on the market.

    My other neighbor died unexpectedly. His sister and girlfriend were in a panic for a few weeks, then put it on the market at a ridiculous price that will take years to move, and left most of the furniture in place.

    There’s a lot of reasons to hang on to a property. If we needed money in a hurry mom could get a home equity loan. It gives us time to sort through the clutter. For me, this is a free hotel when I come back to town. Security cameras, lights on timers, smart thermostats and two grandkids to mow the lawn.

    • Hmph, “I’m sitting in one of those empty houses right now.”

      …It’s not, “empty” then, is it?

      Anyway, There’s a lot of reasons to hang on to a property. One of those reasons isn’t because it’s an alligator.

      Also: a Big, ‘something’ is lost in this idea: “If Blackrock showed up with an above-market bid we’d probably take it though.”

      Myself, I’d rather sell it at a loss to a young married couple with kids. But, what do I know.

      • I suppose not. So for a few days a year I get a “free” Air B&B in an inconvenient location. Not worth the effort. Either way, the decision to sell or keep or whom to sell to isn’t mine, and frankly I don’t care what happens to this place once it’s put on the market. I’ve wrung out all the nostalgia I want so to me it is just a building and the “old neighborhood” is full of people I don’t know and will never meet.

  4. I don’t think you area is ripe for warehouse or data center development but it could be for that too. Sometimes it takes a couple years to aassemble a large enough piece of real estate for such a project. So early purchases sit for a while, they write off the “losses” on taxes rather than go though the trouble of renting them out during the wait.

    I am amazed the locations they want at times. Sometimes they will buy out a recently developed subdivision in a few cases. They end up razing single family houses not even ten, twenty years old. Nearly impossible to be the holdout, unfortunately as towns think they will get far more property taxes from a data farm (plus no more having to provide public schools) than a single family neighborhood. Lots of these going on around O’hare Airport in the Chicago area.

    • Hi Rich,

      All I do know is that it’s creepy. Maybe my memory is faulty, but I on’t recall a prior time when multiple houses – not just that one “old house” down the road – sit empty for years. There are three such houses on the roughly 2 mile stretch of road to the left and right of my house (two are mentioned in the article). I have lived here 22 years and this has never occurred before. It’s creeping me out.

      • I read about such on TheHousingBubbleBlog after 2004.

        Mostly, in California. Houses wouldn’t be air-conditioned and would get all sickly moldy inside. Rotted. Florida, too.

        Then, it became very similar to selling a car which was flooded out in Louisiana, just find, ‘the greater fool’ willing to pay more.

    • The thing about any digital infrastructure is access to big intercity fiber backbone/trunk cables. They’re all over the place and often no where near any major highways or city centers. Often they run along railroad rights of way. They need repeater stations every 30-50 miles or so, and that equipment is housed in a very distinctive building. Once you know what to look for you’ll see it.

      If Eric’s town is between two major metropolitan areas, or even just along a major trunk+power distribution lines, and has excess water available, it just might be in a prime location.

  5. There are 16 million vacant homes in the U.S. They could get nationalized in the near future and I will tell you why. Basically Trump has poisoned the MAGA brand, so now the country will oscillate toward the radical Left.

    Trump recently nationalized US Steel. As Fed money printing has bankrupted our society, the trend toward nationalization will continue as the bankrupt government keeps it’s control over us. Then we have the election of Zohar Mandamni, socialist – communist.

    In the Bolshevik revolution, wealthy homes were turned into apartments, this is after the Romanov ruling family were gunned down. (think golden palace Trump meeting an inglorious end)

    Is it a stretch to imagine the young people, totally screwed by the system, where there’s no jobs and homes costing 500k and up voting socialist? Traitor orange MIGA pig has screwed the pooch – only won the last election by 2 million votes over a really reprehensible drunk whore. Trump has destroyed MAGA with his allegiance to Israhell, a demonic state committing genocide. The blowback to the orange lying traitor could be horrific for the republic.

    In this comment I expand on my theory why the Democrat-Socialist-Communist axis may be in our future. I make the case why the USA is heading straight into fiscal insolvency and radical political change:

    https://www.unz.com/kbarrett/no-future-for-israel/#comment-7425745

    IMO the current exponential rise of gold and silver is a bad omen, a bad moon rising. We are totally screwed. Trump screwed the patriot movement, civil war and states leaving the union are real possibilities.

    The leaders I like right now is Stu Peters and Candace Owens.

    I do not like Alex Jones or any other phony shill like TPUSA Erika Kirk,

    • Basically Trump has poisoned the MAGA brand, so now the country will oscillate toward the radical Left.

      I’m beginning to believe that this has been his plan from the very start. He certainly is a convincing actor who has fooled a lot of people. However, a long, hard look at his past certainly doesn’t lead one to believe that he is either an America-first populist or anything remotely resembling a fiscal or social conservative.

      America has been played, thoroughly.

  6. A vacant house “winterized”? Best get that right, or good luck with the plumbing come spring. The stink from the drains and toilets when the traps evaporate dry. Rats, mice, bugs.

    Come summer, if it’s a humid area the AC has to be active in a closed house or it’s on to the mildew on, and in, the walls. Coworker’s mom passed, left him the house in SC, inland but still enough humidity to do it in. AC was off and that was that.

    I’m with you, very suspicious for numerous vacant homes.

    • “A vacant house “winterized”? Best get that right, or good luck with the plumbing come spring. The stink from the drains and toilets when the traps evaporate dry. Rats, mice, bugs.”

      Wasn’t hard at all. Did it for over a decade.

      None of the “issues” you’ve imagined.

      • Yep, we winterize our mountain cabin each fall by shutting off/draining pipes then just adding RV antifreeze to the traps in sinks/toilets/shower.

        Those traps never dry out in the 5-6 months until we re-open in the spring.

      • HA! “None of the “issues” you’ve imagined.”

        It’s not an imagination, dude.

        You took steps. “Investors” often do not. Paying people to do what you did, is a real hiccup in their plans.

        Me thinks, you have no idea,… how bad ‘they’ let houses get.

        No. Clue.

        [Still can’t shake that image of an attic filled with black mold. …If, only.]

  7. “Maybe a better question is: Who can afford to just “hold” an empty house for months – years?”.

    Lots of people. Did it myself for over a decade. I now live at the property full time.

    Lots of reasons this happens ranging from vacation homes, investment, to family dramas and inability to get siblings to agree how to move forward in an inherited home after parents die.

    “It’s probably at least $150/month just to keep the power on and the house warm enough inside (during the winter) to keep the pipes from bursting.”

    Houses can be winterized. No need to keep it heated.

    Minimum power service charge was $25/month with my power provider regardless of whether power was used or not.

    Doesn’t necessarily have to portend anything.

    • Morning, BID!

      I agree. In the “not necessarily” sense. If it were just one empty house, I’d assume what you said. But two – on a rural road with just a dozen homes over the course of more than 1 mile strikes me as . . . odd.

      • That’s our lizard brain looking for patterns. Sometimes seeing something there where there is nothing.

        Sometimes failing to see when there is real danger.

        When money is being inflated, real property, real assets are a sure bet.

        Not saying that IS the case with the homes near you but with what you’ve written about previously it sure sounds like your area is becoming more desirable to others as time moves on. There doesn’t have to be evil intent.

        As was stated by another commenter the county GIS will tell you who owns the said properties be it in trust or by private party.

        • Oh, you’re trying way too hard to downplay the issue.

          “That’s our lizard brain looking for patterns.”?

          Psft, the pattern is on TheHousingBubbleBlog, this road has been traveled already.

          Investors buy sheet, they lock it up while they count their paper gains, they let it sit, and it rots.

          Lots of history of that. Lots and lots.

          …Pay attention.

    • Another possibility:
      BULs (Bug Out Locations), or just a “country house,” for rich, or even “semi-rich” fokkers from District of Criminals or some other ultra high cost urban area, whose primary residence has appreciated to the point they can buy another property out in the country. If their primary residence was paid off, they may very well need the mortgage interest tax write off.

      It should be easy to find out who owns the place via county tax assessor, or even Zillow. Prudent owners will likely take title via trust, or possibly LLC or LLP, but there will be an address as to where to send the property tax bill.

      I once dated a woman from Wisconsin whose family owned what they described as a “cabin” in the woods. They only went there once a year.

      • For sure, prolly, maybe, “BULs”

        Mah BULs, they be full of bats and mice and rats and mold.

        Sum, BUL.

        …Got, groundhogs?

        [They destroy foundations]

  8. This also could be someone that passed on or is in an old folks home and the family hasn’t sold the home. Also might be people evicted out of the house which takes years for the government to grab it and auction it. Look up the property on your counties website and see who owns it. I’d be surprised blackrock is out in the country unless someone knows about a big project like an airport planned for the area.

  9. Institutional investors, private equity firms and corporations should be PROHIBITED from buying houses! It’s in instances like these where Libertarianism fails, because Libertarianism says that businesses can do no wrong, while gov’t can do no right. Libertarianism says that private entities have the right to do whatever they please, and that they cannot and should not be prohibited from buying and selling whatever they please.

    • Agreed. There is no longer a check on greed in this country. “Too big to fail” what a disgusting concept. My small town the business district is controlled by a handful of owners. My daughter may have to bail from her one year old business if the lease renewal rate goes up by more than a few hundred a month. They charge western WA rates here in a sparsely populated county. No, they don’t hold a mortgage her landlord inherited most of the block free and clear from Mom.

  10. It’s not just Blackrock that leaves property vacant. An old motel close to me sat vacant for decades before being demolished a couple years ago; the food truck owner who rented their parking lot explained that the property owners had bought it a long time ago and the rent she paid covered the taxes. I suspect it would have made more sense to keep the motel open and rent some of the parking for the food truck to get even more money but that could be just me.

    Heck even my Mom’s old house sat vacant for a couple years before the new owner finally moved in and one of the neighbors indicated that she had no problems calling the city regarding an unkempt looking property.

    As for corporations and rural land hopefully Eric doesn’t wake up one morning and discover all those empty homes have been converted into Section 8 housing.

  11. You might check the local GIS system with your local GovCo. They usually have a very detailed description of the property, who owns it and when it last changed hands.

    Of course, local GovCo loves the increase in “property value” because that’s how they figure your rent. It’s not based on what you paid, it’s based on what others are paying for other properties now. How collectivist is that? But, our form of socialism is better because we have red, white and blue on our flag and the yellow star for your RealID has five points not six.

    It’s not new though. Forty acres and a mule my butt.

  12. Your article, Eric, reminds me of how at some point the globalists mantra of “you will own nothing and be happy” could be at play. Black Rock and others work the system to their advantage, and ordinary people lose-which is the whole plan. Make housing so unaffordable that one has to rent. Then make the rent so high that people cannot even rent a house and have to leave. “Hey, we have these rack-’em-and-stack-’em, micro apartments all ready, and it is so convenient, too. Just 15 minutes from whenever you need to go”. Only they are merely, modern day, Warsaw-like Ghettos. People in your area are not going to willingly leave where they are in Deplorable Land. Thus, just raise the prices of everything rathern than force you out with a gun. Either way, being out in the boonies, and free, is going to be illegal one day.

    • Merry Christmas Shadow:

      Micro apartments might work for the urban hipsters out there but for those who want a garden, white picket fence and a garage big enough to work on their car it just doesn’t cut it.

      I might not have a large property but if we get a power failure I’ve got enough wood for the old wood stove and fuel for the generator to have cold beer and warm feet. 🙂

      Those hipsters just freeze when there is a power failure and good luck trying to tell most people that “Failure to plan is too plan to fail”.

    • There is a ton of upscale looking stack and pack housing in the Bay Area and Sacramento area has cheaper looking versions of the stuff. It’s already super expensive and depressing to look at. Plus it is dramatically increasing congestion on the surrounding arterials and highways.

    • RE: ” Make housing so unaffordable that one has to rent. Then make the rent so high that people cannot even rent a house and have to leave.”

      As is said, ‘The answer to high prices – IS – high prices’.

      What happens when an empty house goes unrented?

      Do you suppose, maybe, possibly, the asking rent goes down in order to attract a tenant?

      …Or, of the house, so high priced, no one can afford it?

      Turtles, all the way down.

      • They end up as write-off for large corporations. Or, such corporations starting giving the housing to illegal aliens. Thus, those who could still afford to keep their house will still move out, because of the incoming hordes of said illegals.

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