Tomorrow is selection day. We’ll know soon just how much Trump’s water-carrying for Israel is going to cost us – and not just at the pump (and the grocery store).
Not that the selection matters in terms of the blues vs. the reds. That is a contest of a piece with Coke vs. Pepsi. What matters is what Trump will do (or be told to do) irrespective of the outcome. This has probably already been decided; indeed, it has to have been decided because it takes time to make ready for fateful decisions.
If there is a blue wave, as almost all the polls – besides Trump’s – are predicting, Trump will probably restart the war he temporarily paused, perhaps hoping to lull enough people into believing he’d won it and the worst is already past – because Trump is a vengeful man who will feel betrayed by the people for not supporting him. He is likely to no longer care at all about what the people (excepting those who agree with him like Keitel and Jodl agreed with the Austrian postcard painter) think, shedding any veneer of pretending to. He will say (to himself): Fuck ’em. I am going to do what I want to do because I am always right about everything. And why not? Rather, what would stop him? Politically, he would be a lame duck no longer restrained by any need to curry public favor.
Put another way, what has he got lose? The answer is pretty harrowing.
Then there’s the other possibility, which is not a blue wave but a red holding-of-the-line. This seems improbable given Trump’s maybe 30 percent approval rating. Some will say – and this is usually correct – that it’s the locals who are on the ballot, not Trump. But this may not be a usual situation. The economy is disastrous for almost everyone who isn’t already affluent; i.e., for the people who can comfortably absorb spending $70 to fill up the tank of a vehicle that cost $40 to fill up just eight months ago, before the war started. Interestingly, this encompasses a large portion of the working and middle income people who supported Trump in 2024 – many of whom in prior elections often supported the blue side of the double-headed coin.
The McConservative punditry seems clueless about this. Beck, Hannity, Clay & Buck all talk as if the economy – financial worries – didn’t matter more than whether Iran Gets a Nuke. They are likely badly wrong about this; we’ll know for sure within about 48 hours.
If not they are not wrong and enough people do care enough about whether Iran Gets a Nuke to vote for the party that is responsible for their financial worries (at least, the new ones that have arisen as a result of the war) then Trump, basking in his egomania, will claim a resounding mandate – even if it’s just the reds barely holding onto the Senate – and resume the war with Iran.
Either way, it feels like that’s going to happen within the next couple of days and possibly as soon as the day after tomorrow. If it does, we’re going to find out just how capable the Iranians are at punching back. It is possible Trump has been told but doesn’t care. There are stories floating around about a memo to various government agencies calling for them to secure 90 days’ worth of supplies; also stories about the military preparing for the possibility of having to deal with mass body disposal.
Might be a good idea to fill up the gas jugs today.
. . .
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The demographics of the country have changed. The majority of voters are at or very close to retirement age. 55+ is the largest group of “likely voters.”
Let’s break down that number. Retirees will complain about higher fuel costs, but they can easily control their travel by combining trips and bulk purchases (which they can store in their empty-nest sized house).
Workers over 50 make up a large number of knowledge workers, many of whom can work from home, only come to the office for special events, etc. Maybe they’re like Raider Girl and run a service business from home. They aren’t really impacted by fuel cost either. They can work anywhere with a network connection (including a light rail train).
Then there are the people who are earning enough to cover an additional $200-300/month in fuel, but maybe aren’t adding to their savings as much as they could. They’re highly unlikely to vote Democrat for domestic issues, not necessarily because of higher fuel costs. They are also the MAGA parrots who will go along with Trump because they aren’t paying attention to what he does, only what he says.
We know that older demographic groups vote more than younger. We know that they’ve also left the Democrats as they’ve gone full banana republic communist in their message. So they’re either not going to vote this time, or they’re going to hold their nose and continue to vote Republican.
Hi RK,
Maybe. And maybe I am so angry it colors my judgment. But my sense of it is that most people are at their wits end with Trump and the GOP. We’ll soon see what the colon spits out…