How much could Trump’s stupid, evil – and apparently never-ending – war with Iran (for Israel) cost us? According to Rapidan Energy Group, which forecasts global oil and gas supply/price trends, it could soon be costing Americans $7 per gallon – due to the price of crude oil reaching (possibly surpassing) $200 per barrel.
“Hormuz disruptions will be deeper and more persistent than we previously expected, materially tightening global oil balances through 2027,” says a statement issued by Rapidan. “Expect ongoing military risks to constrain vessel transits through the Strait well into next year, keeping Arab Gulf production below pre-conflict levels through 4Q27.”
Italics added.
Did you get that? Rapidan is predicting much higher oil (and so, gas) prices through the fourth quarter of 2027. As in all year, next year. Probably beginning this year. It does not take a prophet to predict this because it’s already happening. As of July 23 – the date this column was written – the cost of gasoline had already risen about 25 cents per gallon over the course of a little more than a week. It is now – according to AAA – $4.02 per gallon. It is much more in some areas. If the war does not end soon – more precisely, if the Strait isn’t opened soon – it is a near-certainty that it will continue to rise.
The only question at this point is how high can it go?
Rapidan predicts it could go ballistic. The thing about ballistic things, of course, is that after they go up they always come down.
In this case, everything could go down in tandem. People can’t buy what they can’t afford. When that happens at scale, everything goes down.
Does Trump give any thought to the consequences of gasoline at $7 per gallon? Probably not, because gasoline could go up to $20 per gallon and he wouldn’t feel it. None of the creatures responsible for this stupid, evil war for Israel have to worry about feeling it. They have the means of Crassus – combined with the ethics of Crassus. Of course, Crassus didn’t end so well. If Trump read books he might have read about that.
Seven dollar gas would end America as we have known it. It would “break the back” of the world economy, in the word’s of Rapidan’s CEO, Bob McNally. Suburbs would become economically untenable places for most of the people who currently live there to continue living there because most of the people living there have to drive to work and if gasoline goes up to $7 per gallon, it will no longer be economically tenable to continue driving to work. Filling up a typical crossover SUV such as a Toyota RAV4 – which takes about 15 gallons of gas – would cost more than $100. A full-size SUV or truck that takes 22-24 gallons would cost $150-170. Perhaps by itself this could be managed by cutting back on other things but most people have already cut back on most other things.
Rapidan doesn’t mention the elephant in the room – which is diesel fuel. If the price of gas goes up to $7 per gallon, the price of diesel will go up to $10 per gallon and that will make food a luxury for tens of millions of people. Forget about filling the tank. Diesel is the invisible fuel of the American (the world) economy. It is not gasoline that powers the big rigs, the trains – and even the ships – that bring food and the things needed to produce food from Here to There. It is diesel. The opening monologue of the Road Warrior had it wrong. The world didn’t crumble because gazzuline became scarce. Well, it did – in the movie. In reality, it will crumble when diesel becomes scarce (or unaffordable, which amounts to the same thing).
It’s all horrible to contemplate because it’s a nightmare scenario of suffering for billions of people. It not just the American people who will suffer as a result of Trump’s stupid, evil war The entire world is going to suffer. This would be horrible just because it’s horrible – but it is something much worse because it is engineered horribleness.
None of this had to happen. It was made to happen. Trump chose to wage war on Iran when he could have chosen not to. The Iranians had not attacked us. They had annoyed Israel. Somehow, annoying Israel justifies the United States attacking Iran. Well, it justified attacking Iran – to Trump. And why not? It’s not as if his material (or physical) well-being is on the line. It’s ours that is – and for a sociopath or psychopath, that is a matter of indifference. These people not only don’t care about us they don’t have to care about us.
This point is critical to understanding why this stupid, evil war began and why it isn’t ending. The people who started it don’t care about the consequences because there are none for them. Not the kind that are going to befall us, at any rate. They will not starve. They will not lose their homes. They will not even run out of gas – because these creatures will always have access to the things (including the necessities) they take from us or which their stupid, evil actions deny to us.
As the war grinds on, these consequences grow more certain and ominous.
Just not for them.
. . .
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 cost us? Maybe $7 per gallon?){kind=link}
7.23.26 YNET Next week: Fuel prices expected to rise significantly. Against the backdrop of the sharp rise in global oil prices in recent days due to the escalation between the U.S. and Iran, fuel prices in Israel are expected to increase significantly between Saturday and Sunday. Estimates suggest that if there is no dramatic change in the security tensions, the Strait of Hormuz does not fully reopen and the dollar exchange rate against the shekel remains above three shekels, the price per liter of 95-octane gasoline at self-service stations will rise by approximately 25 to 30 agorot and reach around 7.75 shekels. At full-service stations, it will again become more expensive at around eight shekels.”
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hxpz6s26n
7.23.26 Larry Johnson/Sonar21. “ISRAEL’S CRITICAL FUEL EXPOSURE…Let me boil this down for you. During the first five weeks of Epic Fury Israel’s refineries in Haifa and Ashdod were hit and suffered significant damage. Those two refineries are essential for Israel’s ability to produce diesel and jet fuel. At present Israel is scraping by, but it does not have substantial reserves. Further damage to those refineries would create a fuel crisis for Israel, especially in terms of its ability to produce jet fuel. Without jet fuel, Israel’s ability to continue bombing Lebanon and Gaza would be severely constrained, if not eliminated. A lack of diesel would also cripple Israel’s ground operations. In short, renewed Iranian attacks on Israel’s refineries could leave Israel unable to continue military operations.”
https://sonar21.com/israels-critical-fuel-exposure/
I unfortunately watched Kegsbreath testify the other day in front of Congress. Man is he an idiot. He makes Trump look like Einstein. Typical neocon foot soldier. When pressed on any issue his only response is to shout “Biden” or blather on about 47 years. He’s such an embarrassment.
Morning, Klink –
Yup. He is also a fanatic Israeli firster. The worst sort. Like The Chimp, he combines alcoholism with religious fanaticism. This is never a good combination.
I don’t see gas getting anywhere close to $7 (on average) in the US. Of course, some places like the West Coast it is probably already there, but the US average will not get that high. People complain, really complain, when it reaches $4 a gallon. Even the gas companies know there is a sweet spot for oil around $66 to $73 a barrel. A jump in oil at that price would destroy the economy. Deliveries, manufacturing, the trades, people just trying to get to work would come to a screeching halt. No one is going spend $1500 in fuel a month to take home $4k…the math doesn’t make sense.
Hi RG,
I am not religious but I pray you are correct. If you’re wrong, we’re in for (to put it mildly) a rough ride. I’d worry less if sane and serious people were in charge. Unfortunately, for us, idiots and psychopaths are.
US crude inventories lowest in 45 years:
https://x.com/Barchart/status/2079098891857740287?s=20
From the newsletter that cross-posted the chart:
“Let’s note, though, that 1982 and 2026 are vastly different energy markets. Much US
consumption has shifted from oil to natural gas and renewable sources. Vehicles are
more efficient, too. So the country arguably doesn’t need as much cushion now as 40-50
years ago.”
There’s that “just in time” supply chain argument again. “Oh, we don’t need buffers, we need our suppliers to deliver when we want it!” Good luck with that when your CEO constantly blames and harasses them every day.
Bottom line from commenter JackG #318 in this thread:
‘It is very important to distinguish between PHYSICAL SHORTAGE vs. HIGH PRICES. The US won’t have physical shortages, whereas I suspect the EU and Australia will. However, when the SPR reaches minimum operating levels, WTI will spike. WCS [Western Canada Select] is priced off of WTI, along with the other crudes. Actually all the shale oils are priced off of it. So prices will skyrocket.
‘When does the SPR run out? If we draw it down to zero, and assume 10mm per week withdrawal, then 30 weeks (not going to happen). If we assume 250MM minimum operating level, then 6 weeks. I think 6 weeks is the absolute maximum, and it’s probably closer to 3 weeks. There are multiple salt domes. Some will drop offline quickly, others will last longer, so it will be a gradual decline. Markets will anticipate it.
‘Closure of the Red Sea for supertankers heading to Yanbu makes things worse. If Iran hits an oil facility, or power plant, or desalination plant, the spike will be in a day. The loss of Russian product exports also makes things a lot worse as the EU will be scrambling to buy any US cargo they can get. The GCC may slip out some crude via the Iran sea lane from time to time, but their refineries are down and they aren’t exporting product, which was a key supply for the EU.
‘In other news, EU natural gas just took out 12 month highs.’
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2026/07/wash-me-but-dont-get-me-wet.html/comment-page-4#comments
JackG’s comments are prefaced by an analysis of US heavy crude imports from Canada, Mexico, Brazil and Venezuela, which aren’t affected by the war. Even in response to the Trumptard’s punitive tariffs, Canada is unlikely to mount a ‘Canadian oil embargo’ of the US.
But it’s incredibly f*cking stupid for Trump to start a tariff war with Canada, when we ACTUALLY NEED the Canadian crude supply. Impeach — impeach — impeach!
How Much Is It Going to Cost Us?</b?
'House Republicans on Wednesday won narrow approval of their $95 billion budget plan to fund the war with Iran and impose new election restrictions President Trump has demanded, muscling through dissent in their ranks to send the measure to a skeptical Senate.
‘The blueprint would pave the way for filibuster-proof legislation known as a reconciliation bill that would bypass Democratic opposition and provide up to $73 billion in additional military funding, $12 billion for farmers and $10 billion to enforce severe new voting restrictions championed by Mr. Trump.’
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/22/us/politics/house-republicans-iran-budget-pentagon.html
Since this is a forever war, $95 billion is only a down payment.
Impeach and remove Trump. Then charge him under the War Crimes Act of 1996. As I warned the other party in 1993, before they lost the House majority they’d enjoyed for 40 years — we’re going to MAKE YOUR PARTY PAY!
Wars are fought over money and power. As we have neither we are not given a vote on the matter. I wish it wasn’t so but that’s the real situation and there’s not much we can do about it.
The former head of the Luftwaffe Herman Goering pointed this out but we failed to learn that lesson or heed his warning and that’s why we are in this situation now.
Hi Landru –
Yup. And – like Crassus – Goring was an admirable man in a number of ways. Firstly that he was a man. A lion of a man. He was the only man in the dock at Nuremberg to behave like a man – and (ultimately) to die like a man.
The people fronting the federal government, in contrast, are poltroons and oafs. Vile vulgarians and degenerates.
It costs me $200 / week now to commute to work. If it doubles as Eric suggests, assuming wfh isn’t reinstated, I will retire. Eff it all. And Eff Trump n his kike enablers.
There are three groups of people who consistently say “I’m not fucking dying for Israel”:
1. US soldiers,
2. Americans at risk of being drafted into a large-scale war, and
3. Israelis.
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2026/07/no_author/not-even-israelis-are-willing-to-die-for-israel/
Indeed, MH –
This is a descent into madness. We are at war . . . why? Trump says because Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. Well, didn’t he say that his bombing campaign had ended Iran’s nuclear capability? And why would Iran having a single or even a few nuclear weapons constitute any more of a “threat” than Israel having hundreds of them? Iran has done nothing to America to warrant what is happening – which is why I am expecting “the Iranians” (i.e., the Israelis) to stage an “Iranian” attack here in the Homeland, to conjure the support for this war that is manifestly not there right now. I hope Americans – enough of them – will not buy it when “the Iranians” detonate a dirty bomb in DC. No matter how many times Trump plays the Lee Greenwood song.
Arguably the 2008 Great Recession and attendant housing crisis was caused by $150 a barrel oil. Having a huge suburban house (and driving a huge Chevy Suburban) became unaffordable.
But I always respected Marcus Licinius Crassus. He and his son led from the front and they got what they had coming at Carrhae. That was a respectable oligarch, a man.
I agree, Kmose!
Far more so than loud-mouthed poltroons such as Trump. Crassus was, indeed, a man.
He may well be dead but in a way he lives on.
Marcus Licinius Crassus, a prominent Roman general and statesman, is credited with the statement, “You are not really rich unless you can raise a legion.” This quote reflects his belief that true wealth is measured by one’s ability to finance military forces.
The reason the U.S. GovCo attacked Iran is to see that a lunatic Islamic regime doesn’t get nuclear weapons. Now Trump, et al, are giving the Saudis nuclear enrichment WITHOUT any oversight and the ability to enrich to weapons grade…in other words, they can make warheads out of it.
That’s nice.
Give the country from whence 15 of 19 hijackers came from nuclear warheads.
What could possibly go wrong?
See here:
https://tinyurl.com/yycsdtdr