Dump One – Bring Out Another One?

Nissan has just announced it is “pausing production of” (meaning, it is cancelling) the Ariya, the EV that Brie Larsen was paid to try to make sexy.

Hope she cashed her check.

The Ariya hasn’t even been around three full years, so Nissan deciding this will be this EV’s last year gives you a hint about how much the Ariya has probably cost Nissan so far – and not counting what they had to pay Larsen. Management decided to cut bait, a sensible business decision.

So why try baiting it again?

At the very moment the Ariya is being given the bum’s rush off the stage, the all-new 2026 Leaf is being rolled in to take its place. All of that wasted effort is to be reiterated on the theory that what failed the last several times won’t fail so long as you keep doing the same thing again. Nissan touts the increased standard range – 259 miles! –  of the ’26 models. the old model Leaf, which came standard with a best-case/full-charged driving range of 150 miles. Not touted is the increased price. The outgoing Leaf didn’t go very far, but it did have affordability going for it.

Sort of.

The 2025 Leaf’s base price is $28,140 – which for an electric car is “affordable.”

The 2026 Model will start around $30k but that’s not what makes it expensive. The federal and state tax rebates that lop as much as $7,500 off what it used to cost to buy a Leaf are gone this month and what will Nissan have? A new Leaf that will cost about as much to buy – without the $7,500 tax credit – as Nissan has been trying to sell the larger Ariya for.

It seems counterproductive. It is. The why is because government makes it so. The all-new 2026 Leaf was being designed when Joe Biden was just beginning his Weekend at Bernie’s presidency. It was being designed for today, in other words. But today is not what Nissan’s product planners, marketing people and compliance people expected it would be. They – the entire car industry – had been operating on the assumption that the pushing of electric vehicles by the federal government’s regulatory apparat would continue. Then Trump got elected. He did not end the “electric vehicle mandate,” as he claims to have. Because there never was one.

Trump did prevent the federal government’s regulatory apparat from imposing a de facto electric vehicle mandate via federal gas mileage “standards.” These were expected to  increase from about 30 MPG – which can be complied without even needing a hybrid drivetrain – to about 50 MPG, a “standard” that can only be met by building a lot of hybrid and also electric vehicles especially. Not because they sell but because they offset.

The current (2025) Leaf’s window stickers touts 123 MPG”e” in city driving an 99 MPG”e” on the highway and that sound awfully good – from a compliance point-of-view. The federal gas mileage standards are complied with on averages. The vehicle manufacturers aren’t forced to manufacture EVs; but an EV that is credited with 123 MPG”e” helps greatly to even out the effect of 22 MPG SUVs on those averages. The 123 MPG”e” vehicle makes it feasible to continue manufacturing vehicles and engines that lots of people want and so actually earn a profit. Meanwhile, park all these compliance vehicles on the back lot for now.

Then fire-sale/wholesale or otherwise write ’em off.

The problem there, of course, is it’s still costing money. It’s not Nissan  – or a Nissan Dealer – that’s getting the money back. All that $7,500 tax kickback did was kick back some of the money stolen from the buyer by the government and then used as an inducement to get him to buy an EV. As an inducement to his (and others) being seen driving EVs, to give the impression of burgeoning demand that was to a great extent artificial demand.

But how could Nissan have foreseen that Trump – like MacArthur – would return? It had to assume the federal pushing of EVs would wax rather than wane; and having those 123MPG”e” EVs sure helps with the CAFE averages.

How is that going to help Nissan, though? How has it helped Nissan so far? It has been losing money on the Leaf since its debut back in 2011. Does it not occur . . . ? Of course it does. It is one of those things one knows all about but everyone prefers not to discuss because (within the industry) everyone is expected to pretend.

Yep. We’ll comply our way out of this thing! Works every time.

Maybe not this time, though. Nissan – and several others – are in not-good shape and the main reason is they’ve been trying to comply their way out of this thing. Which is why it may be too late this time. Same for Chrysler, maybe Dodge. VW’s in there as well so is Mercedes.

It’s a shame. Because it didn’t have to be.

. . .

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