Tesla got a lot of press recently for lowering the asking prices of its electric cars. The first time this has happened. It was touted as a sign that the cost of electric cars – which had been rising – was falling.
In fact, it is a function of Teslas not selling.
Orders have plummeted from more than 476,000 as of last summer to around 72,000 as of right now.
“Tesla is clearly transitioning from being supply constrained – where delivery volumes grow in line with production capacity and prices increase – to being demand constrained – where prices fall to stimulate demand and production outpaces delivery,” says Bernstein analyst Yoni Sacconaghi, who advises selling rather buying stock in the company.
As in, cut your losses.
Alexander Potter of the investment banking company Piper Sandler says “wait times (for new Teslas) haven’t spiked meaningfully, so Tesla may cut prices further.”
So, what’s up with all of this?
Several things, probably.
The first is that we may have arrived at Peak Tesla. We may have actually passed it. Sometimes, you can only see things behind you in the rearview mirror. Tesla’s models are all old. Some of them – like the Model S – are ancient. The 2024 model is essentially the same car as the 2012 model and that was 11 years ago. Dodge is still selling the equally ancient Charger and Challenger, but the difference is those two still sell well – because they are what they people who buy them want. Which is what’s “old” – as in burly American cars with burly V8 engines. It is a selling point.
People who buy Teslas want what’s new. The very latest thing. Buying a new car that is the same as an eleven-year-old car isn’t that.
Also, Tesla’s other models are not – generally speaking – the kinds of models that sell well, regardless. The Model 3 is a small sedan; the Model Y is the same thing bulged out a little – but it is still little.
And the market favors larger, roomier cars. And trucks. And SUVs. Ford sells about half a million F-150s (not the electric ones) each year.
The Model X is a little larger – but its almost-six-figure base price ($94,990) means it will never sell in other than small numbers – because there just aren’t that many people who can afford a six figure car, electric or not.
But the more profound problem – for Tesla and EVs generally – is that the market for EVs may have already reached or is beginning to reach saturation. The majority of people who want an EV have already bought an EV. That leaves not many who are willing to buy an EV. Maybe because they don’t want one. Maybe because they cannot afford one (even with the price cuts, the compact-sized Model 3 still has a base price of more than $40,000 – and that’s with the standard limp-dick battery that provides a best-case/optimistic 272 miles of range; if you want more you’ll pay a lot more to get it).
Regardless, the point is that electric cars are specialty cars for which there is an inherently limited market, due to their cost and their functional limitations. The people who have bought them so far are willing to overlook the latter and are able to afford the former. Most people can’t – and won’t.
And so, they don’t.
That leaves Tesla – and everyone else trying to sell EVs – trying to sell them to fewer and fewer people who want (and can afford) them. Hence the price cuts, as regards Tesla (and Ford, which recently announced the same for the Mach e “Mustang” electric crossover wagon). But price cuts don’t obviate undesirability. Would you buy a house in a crap neighborhood because it cost less? Some might. Some do. Most won’t.
Also, price cuts sometimes have the ironic effect of causing sales to decrease even more – as they are a sign that the item in question isn’t selling. It is a sign of weakness, in other words. That gives buyers power. If the seller is willing to reduce his price then maybe he is desperate to sell – and will reduce it further. Why would anyone pay sticker for what they know the seller really needs to sell?
EVs will sell for less – for a while. But sellers cannot afford to continue selling them on that basis because that is how you go broke “selling” things. Ford reportedly loses $60,000 on every EV it has “sold” so far. That is astounding if true. But even if the loss is only a few hundred per EV, it is not – what’s that word – sustainable.
Electric cars – or electric toasters – you cannot spend the money to make them and lose money selling them. Not for long.
At least so long as there is a lower cost (and better) alternative to them.
Some suspect – and I think they are right – that there is an understanding between the Biden Regime’s EV pushers and the car industry that has allowed itself to be pushed around by them. The agreement, broad-brush, is probably along the following lines:
Don’t worry about losing money. We have your back. We will make sure that people have to buy what you’re selling. We will make other cars more expensive than electric cars – to buy and to drive. That will cause people to buy your electric cars.
It is possible there is even a plan in the works to eliminate buying – and owning – electric cars altogether, in favor of paying to use them. This “transportation as a service” thing is very real, in that it is a means by which they can continue to extract money from people who can no longer afford to buy a new car.
You will own nothing – and be happy.
But – just maybe – the whole thing will just fall apart. It may be on the verge of doing just that. EV mania is just that. A mania. It is not a reality. It is not a natural evolution from one thing to a better – as in more desirable – thing. As was the case when people transitioned from buying tube TVs to flat screen TVs. Or to Model T Fords from horses and buggies.
It is a thing being pushed.
The problem, fundamentally, with EVs is that they’re not better – except insofar as they are (briefly) quicker. They are more expensive and less practical. There is probably a limited market for that.
And we may have already passed the saturation point.
. . .
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The Biden Thing’s plan to FORCE Americans to get an EV can only cause even MORE damage to Americans’ standard of living.
https://www.wnd.com/2023/05/bidens-plan-impose-yet-damage-americans-standard-living/
Well, Brandon is going to try to save the EV industry all on his own. Converting M1A1s and HIMARS to be purely electric is surely the push that the industry needs. Of course losing every battle because you don’t have extension cords is another matter.
Eric: The people who have bought them so far are willing to overlook the latter and are able to afford the former.
I remember the same thing being said about the AMC Pacer. It sold well for a few years because those that wanted one bought them and after that happened the market dried up. But at least with a Pacer you could drive it for decades with a little preventative maintenance. EV’s on the other hand are doomed as there batteries wind up costing more than the car is worth when they die.
Indeed, Landru –
The Pacer with the inline six was a durable, if strange-looking, car. A friend of mine had one. I’d have one now, if I could find a good one. But the good ones are all too expensive now. As is true generally, of good cars. Which excludes EVs, of course.
The American people do not want and cannot afford electric cars. There is NO DEMAND for them no matter how the Left and the Biden Regime try to concoct one. People can see the MANY problems EVs have and that the electricity STILL MUST COME FROM FOSSIL FUELS.
Hi Mehitable,
That’s ll true – but it’s beside the point. The point is to use EVs to further limit/control personal transportation. It sounds crazy, at first – I realize. But when you begin to analyze the doings from this perspective, everything that seems crazy beings to make sense.
Well, it’s still crazy, but that does explain the craziness.
So do you want the skinny on why EV subsidies are facing existential doom?
The Federal Government did something really stupid for the past 4 decades – it has vastly increased deficit spending while interest rates fell. The national debt is now a whopping 31.5 trillion, (under Ronald Reagan it went past the 1 trillion mark).
It took 227 years to reach the first trillion in debt, now it only takes a year. All was well so long as interest rates kept falling, but now they are rapidly rising and the interest on the debt is going vertical as shown in this FRED chart:
Interest Payments on National Debt: Chart
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A091RC1Q027SBEA
This was well known to many people and bloggers like me who follow it. We predicted this would happen. No surprise here. But you may be wondering what happens next. A permanent budget crisis – that if botched – which it will be – will only make the situation worse – making interest rates go even higher – from loss of the full faith and credit in the minds of the bond investors.
In my not so humble position, the Zio losers in charge are going to botch it big time. Ziohack Biden, the unelected pedo perv, crazy and reckless fraud, will be going to the mat with Speaker McCarthy and refuse to yield what ever he thinks in his short circuited barely functioning senile brain.
Biden’s current insanity is that he lacks any form of humility and grounding to reality – the funding of Ukraine a prime example – they keep sending the gay demon Zelensky more billions when the war is already lost. Biden refuses to yield to common sense – when he needs to be watching every penny of federal spending because of the upcoming crisis.
I think most of the learned readers here understand and agree with everything so far, but what you do not know is how this insanity ends. It will end. And soon. Because interest rates are going up – which is a massive existential crisis for Tinsel Towns insane spending habits. Interest is going to force cuts in everything else – and if they do not honor bonds – interest rates will go to the moon. If they try to inflate then interest rates will go to the moon. If they do nothing interests will go to the moon.
Interest rates have gone way up – from zero to 5.25% on 3 month T-Bills. Because of the massive federal debt – which is always being rolled over – the Treasury sought to keep the shell game going by funding short term where interest rates were the lowest – but lo and behold interest rates on the short end have gone up the fastest – propelling the US debt interest vertical.
Sec. Janet Yellen said today that the Treasury runs out as soon as June 1st. Biden will not yield. McCarthy will not yield. The US Gov is facing default, if they delay, the CDS insurance on Treasuries will spike again (and again). So this crisis IMO is going to FORCE massive cuts across the board – and almost for sure EV subsidies will be the first to be chopped when compared to say Welfare, Social Security, or Defense.
When that happens will you care? Nope. You will care about your checks and your bank accounts, and your investments. The only sane way out is decades of deflation. But since the Zio crazies are in power – they may opt for WW3 with Russia – which they seem to be currently and hysterically trying with their gay demon butt boy Zelensky.
So IMO EV subsidies will probably not exist by the end of this year.
People who buy electric cars also hate Musk now, and are embarrassed to be seen in a Tesla. Because Musk upset their Twitter party.
Agreed
Hi Year,
There is truth in that. However, Twitter is by no means a free speech zone. Unless you pay him to post, your posts (especially if not Leftist in orientation) just kind of disappear. I’ve decided to stop bothering, other than putting links to what I write here over there. I have become very weary of all “social media.”
social media for my State of Arkansas is going to crash soon. our pols. have passed laws to require all social media including porn to verify our identity to “protect” the kids and keep them off those sites. most of us will not give away all our identity/ssn’s or driver license pics to be able to participate so all the is going to fail. soon other States will jump in and the socials will crash and burn. we will not give up our privacy just to read crap and funny thing is the kids know better than anyone how easy it is for them to completely get around any method to force identity verification.
Nor I, red byrd!
Social media is social cancer. It replaces real connection with ersatz “connection.” It reduces thoughtful back-and-forth to “tweets” – a thing you’d think might appeal to 12-year-old girls.
Good riddance, says I!
I’ve never touched a “social media” service. Years ago, It explored Facebook, for about 5 minutes without creating an account. I decided that pictures of your cat, and photos from your vacation, were of zero consequence to me.
Morning, John!
I recently posted something to the same effect on Twitter. I suggested that, rather than waste time on Leftist “social media” platforms that are hostile to liberty, people spend time at sites that are not hostile to liberty and not owned by the Octopus. This site being one such. But I meant all such sites.
Americans like me do not want EVs. I am 66 years old and don’t have $75K to pay for one. The people pushing this are all about controlling everything. Own nothing and be happy. Eat bugs. Open your borders to everyone and the government (citizens) pay for it all. Say goodbye to the America you used to know. We sold out to idiots like AOC, a bartender who pretends to be smart.
Hi RPerkins,
I think most people either do not want an EV – for any number of reasons – or simply cannot afford one. This idea that most people are going to be able to pay even $40k for a vehicle is preposterous. Yet most EVs cost closer to $50k. They will also cost more to power. Instead of $100/month for gas, a $300 month electric bill.
I bought a 2013 Chevy Volt with 36k mi. in 2016. It now has 125k mi. All I’ve done is tires and alignment and oil changes. It goes (originally) 36 mi. on a charge (now 33). 70% of the miles I drive are on that battery; only 30% on the generator. The car goes 4 mi. per kWh which costs 20 cents so 5 cents per mile off a wall charge or about 33mpg when driving on the generator. Most reliable car I’ve ever had. Too bad 2019 was the last year. Car’s still worth $10k.
Hi Truth,
I think your Volt is worth more than $10k now – and may soon be invaluable. In my opinion, it was and remains the best hybrid vehicle ever offered for sale.
Generally speaking, today most EVs are far too expensive compared to ordinary fossil fueled cars. Either they are just that expensive to produce or somebody is making a handsome profit (which is nice).
Anyway, EVs should be reasonably priced, since they are less practical cars than the ones with combustion engines. Their main benefit is low energy costs when using them.
One EV that is reasonably priced is the entry level Nissan Leaf. In Norway it is currently selling for about 23 000 $, which I would say is affordable, but why are EVs from Audi, MB and BMW so very expensive?
https://mobile.no/nybil/personbil/nissan/leaf/
Hi Jone,
The base Leaf is relatively inexpensive (for an EV) because it can only go about 149 miles on a full charge. As you know, most EV’s actual (real-world) range is typically less than the maximum advertised, unless conditions are ideal (e.g., warm but not too hot, flat roads, moderate speeds) so 149 miles “best case” is even less than that – so this car is impractical as a daily driver for most people. It can be bought with more range – but that brings the price up to about $35k – and now it’s $15k-plus more expensive than an otherwise comparable economy compact.
The others you mention cost more because they tout more range/higher performance, which they must in order to get people to pay the $40k-plus they cost.
Just one additional comment. Considering the presently low expected practical lifetime for EVs, perhaps as low as 10 years, the sensible thing would be to buy affordably priced models. The reason is that also a very expensive EV will be worth very little, as soon as the battery pack is nearing its useful lifetime.
US EV sales up +54.5% in 2022 versus 2021
That is not saturation or close to saturation
While you were waiting at the charging station, I passed you by and am now in first position at the customer, at the restaurant, at the game, at opening day, at the kid’s school. Hopefully you’ll have an extra $20,000 in a few years to replace that battery.
what? extra $20,000 for a battery? I’m with you but the big deal is when the EV makers go under they will also take the battery makers down too. then the folks who have already paid dearly will have expensive yard ornaments. they won’t even be able to go to the junk yard and switch them over to gas!
Richard,
Your figures convey the same impression as those that state “this new regulation will cut emissions by 50 percent.” Of a sliver of a percent.
EVs constitute about 6 percent of total new vehicle sales. Almost all of those sales have happened in major urban areas, such as LA and DC (where there are lots of virtue-signaling government parasites). It is risible to believe that vehicles that cost, on average, twice as much as an entry level car and a third again as much as an average family car are ever going to be mass market cars, leaving aside the functional issues.
Richard,
You are probably a fun guy to be around.
On so many levels the party is over. EV is at or near the top of that list unless they, amd very soon, bring the price way down, the distance between charges way up and the charging time way down.
Hi New,
I think the cost – to buy – of EVs will have to come down to significantly less than the cost of an average non-electric family car in order to make up for the hassles of EV ownership and to offset the pending expense of powering one. I cannot wait until people see their utility bills double-triple (maybe more). This will include all of us.
“EVs will have to come down to significantly less than the cost of an average non-electric family car”
Hence the rush to regulate that non-electric car out of existence.
This chart is why I am skeptical of electric cars and modern evolution theory:
https://i0.wp.com/wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/vostok-hadcrut-temps-II.png?w=1492&ssl=1
source: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/05/05/ice-cores-temperatures-and-co2/
Note how Neanderthals and Humans existed in the depths of the ice age, when 90% of time the climate is colder than today, and much of it is during the great glaciations. You would never evolve out of fur during an ice age, and indeed monkey and apes still have much fur.
Note how the current interglacial (Holocene) has LOWER optimum temperatures compared to the previous 4 interglacials (which covers 450,000 years)
Note how today’s temps are still within the band of the current interglacial.
Note how foolish it is to think the warming will continue – which is projecting the current trend while in the trend – when in the real world, the hysterias occur at the end of the trend – meaning that the global warming mania was at the end of the warming blip – and that it is far more reasonable to assume that the colder temps will now resume.
Stock market bulls become super bulls at the end of a long bull market. Same for the weather. It is a fractal pattern of spikes and peaks, not a linear thing. This next chart destroys the CO2 driven warming narrative, CO2 was steadily increasing while temps stalled:
https://www.climatedepot.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Monckton-jan-2014.png
Video: Did modern meteorology begin record-keeping at the coldest temperatures in the last 10,000 years? Doesn’t mean the temps aren’t going up…the data shows they are…but UP from what benchmark point?
https://rense.com/general97/antar.mp4
‘Stock market bulls become super bulls at the end of a long bull market. Same for the weather.’ — Yukon Jack
Precisely. ‘Global warming,’ ‘EeeVee Fever,’ and ‘Dow 36,000’ (actually 36,799.65 on Jan 4, 2022) are all just extraordinary popular delusions, reflecting the madness of crowds.
When these bubbles pop, the air hisses out of them in a matter of months. Then everyone ruefully claps their hand to their forehead — ‘What the HELL was I thinking?‘
Climate changers should study technical analysis. Their global temperature chart already has topped, and is about to crash hard. Where I can I buy me some Ice Age puts?
Well let me see Yukon, when temperatures started be regularly recorded just so happens to be about the same time as Krakatoa erupted. Could it be possible that the largest volcanic eruption in modern history cooled the planet down? Go figure.
Greenland is not as warm as it was when Eric the Red farmed on the western coast. You are forced to leave Iceland, you sail in Atlantic waters for a thousand miles west or so and find new land. If you can’t control your temper and kill a couple of other Vikings, you have to move on.
Around 950 CE to the 13th century was the Medieval Warm Period, then the Little Ice Age got a foothold until it ended in 1858. Artwork from the Little Ice Age depicts the wintry scenes back then, glaciers advanced in the Alps, a French village was bowled over by an advancing glacier.
By then, the Vikings were gone from Greenland and Lief Ericsson, Eric the Red’s son, had found Newfoundland.
Witches were blamed for the intolerably cold weather, gotta start someplace, can’t blame Mother Nature and surely not God, it is the work of Evil and witches know all about brewing a witch’s brew. Really, that’s how it happened. Gotta stop this unbearable cold, people are dying, Inquisition time.
Slow tree growth allowed Stradivarius to glue together some killer violins back then. It was Solar Cycle Mania.
Mount Tambora erupted in 1815 and was the cause of the Year Without a Summer in 1816. Snowed in June in New England, crops failed, was a mess.
The Carrington Event occurred in 1859, so maybe it was time for the sun to go through some changes prior to the event. Northern Lights at the equator.
Novarupta in Alaska went ballistic on June 6, 1912, the same year the Titanic sank, April 15, 1912, no more maiden voyage for you. Also tax day and the day Lincoln died.
The Winter of 1917 in New England was brutal.
No doubt it is colder now than the Medieval Warm Period.
At a speed of 18.5 miles per second, the earth is booking along at a good clip, all because the sun’s gravity is in control.
It’s always climate chaos.
The typical Tesla owner also owns a BMW, Mercedes, Audi or Lexus. The Tesla is the third or even fourth car. It’s never a primary car. It can’t be. It’s a very expensive commuter car at best.
The market is already over-saturated, and that is going to get worse as a lot of electric models are incoming in the next couple years. The losses will only get worse for the automakers as they will be forced to lower the prices to move any.
Teslas aren’t primary vehicles. Or at least they’re not “only” vehicles. You can drive one around town but depsite the promise and charger network, they’re not a car for the American road trip. So you don’t buy a Tesla, you buy a Tesla and a Yukon. Or an F-150. Something that you can drive for hours in comfort and will get you to the next exit with fuel to spare. That has a good defroster and powerful airconditioning. That doesn’t require a Sophie’s choice between heat to keep your children (and better half) warm or range.
Some say that the first world should have to make that choice, because other people aren’t as well off. They say that by not needing to make that choice, the less fortunate pay the price. I say that’s bullshit, the primary reason why people are poor and starving is because their “leaders” sold them out to the economic hitmen. Now those hitmen are trying to get to us, having run out of other countries to bully.
> the primary reason why people are poor and starving is because their “leaders” sold them out to the economic hitmen.
Mexico is a prime example of that.
As a Mexican friend (a banker who worked for Banamex) once remarked to me, “Mexico no es un pais pobre, pero hace pobre.”
(Mexico is not a poor country, but it does poorly.)
Read up on how New York bankers managed to loot the country, if you are interested.
Eric, you ought to write a new best seller, called ‘The Rise and Fall of the Tesla’.
Subtitle: “Fantasies of Global Warming During the Ice Age”
Electric car subsidies were conceived in iniquity and born in sin. Brainchild Elon Musk (a front man and put up job) was milking the federal cow all along – fueled by zero interest rates an EV mania swept the world, politicians proclaimed a new age upon us as they ran traditional profit making industries into the ground.
All that hoopla is now a pipe dream – the basis for electric car push is the global warming hoax – and now that we are in another little ice age the climate myth/hoax will no longer hold water.
It seems to me Mr. Musk has abandoned Tesla (’cause he knows) and is the new Twitter chief because the future is information control, not EV cars. I have been a big Tesla skeptic all along – an avid reader of Wolf Street:
https://wolfstreet.com/tag/tesla/
Wolf Richter is famous for his Tesla WTF charts.
https://wolfstreet.com/2020/02/04/im-in-awe-of-how-tesla-is-now-a-supernatural-phenomenon/
During the mania – shorting Tesla stock was the road to ruin.
The USA is currently in a budget crisis. It is not going away any time soon. Hegemonic empire building has met it’s waterloo with Russia and China joining hands – the Neocons have inadvertently screwed themselves with the Ukraine war to topple Russia – they only toppled themselves. And this crisis will force our ludicrous spenders to make hard choices – and soon I expect EV subsidies will be on the chopping block – ’cause that freebie only goes to the wealthy – a minority.
Wolf Richter wrote several articles detailing how Tesla “profit” was from EV subsidies. Most people do not know this, that Tesla was never making a profit, they were farming and trading EV credits – worth billions.
https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/tesla-s-main-product-isn-t-cars-it-s-subsidies-14769263
Of course it is morally wrong to do so, as subsidies are really just another form of theft, transferring wealth from one group to another. What really happened was that poorer people driving ICE cars were robbed for wealthy customers driving EVs. In fact people who do not drive at all subsidized rich pricks with multiple high end cars at their McMansions. EVs are a sin. Rich man screwing poor man.
Honoré de Balzac – “Behind every great fortune there is a great crime,”
Elon became the richest man in the world … but how? And the guy pretends to be a free marketeer! Musk(rat) also says Ai is the demon, we must pause Ai, while his company is balls to the wall developing Ai.
Some people know how to get filthy rich working the system, like starting a company that takes advantage of the subsidies, then pawn the company off at the peak of the mania. I say again, why in the hell did Elon Musk skedattle over to Twitter just before all these price cuts? And who in the hell has the time to run 4 companies? Something is very fishy with Musk.
My advice (lol) is do not take that Musk rocket trip to Mar’s work colony.
“cause that freebie only goes to the wealthy – a minority”
That’s precisely why such a subsidy would stay, in my opinion.
Email to a Senator:
As the Senate considers debt ceiling legislation, I urge you to incorporate the sensible restrictions on electric vehicle tax credits in Sec. 232. Clean Vehicle Credit of H.R. 2811, the House-passed debt ceiling bill.
I particularly commend to your attention Section 232’s restoration of the 200,000-vehicle limit, per manufacturer, on electric vehicles qualifying for tax credits.
As your colleague Senator Manchin has now realized, uncapped subsidies for electric vehicles are a budgetary disaster. Debt ceiling negotiations are your opportunity to KILL ELECTRIC VEHICLE SUBSIDIES now.
Bottom line, Senator Sinema: we don’t want no stinkin’ EeeVees. And we sure as hell don’t want to pay for them.
————
https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/2811/text
“We will make other cars more expensive than electric cars – to buy and to drive. ”
This is effectively what the federal government did in 1860, by raising import tariffs on products that northern manufacturers could not make as well or cheaply as European manufacturers. People in the south were the primary importers and were targeted to be screwed to support the inefficient northern manufacturers.
The feds tried this stupid, looting action 20 years earlier and failed when the south threatened to secede. But with a corrupt President who was supported by northern manufacturers the tyrants tried again and imposed the tariffs in 1861.
And that caused the entire south to secede, just as they promised.
Tyrants must be reminded with force on occasion that individual freedom is the source of all production.
That time has come again.
Our major trading “partners” like China, Mexico, Vietnam uses labor that is largely coerced and therefore gives a large corporation a huge undue competitive advantage against American labor. Our labor is always going to look “inefficient” when compared with cents per hour that others across the world still make.
If we had imposed reasonable across the board tarriffs on manufactured products, we might have a stronger middle class like we did in the 1960s, when much higher tariffs were in effect.
And everything you bought cost more. That’s the fallacy of tariffs, the bill for the increase in “American made” falls on the shoulders of those least able to afford it.
The plain simple fact is, the US doesn’t make anything anymore except weapons, dollars, and debt.
>The plain simple fact is, the US doesn’t make anything anymore except weapons, dollars, and debt.
And there is a limited market for those $1,000,000 a shot “smart” weapons.
It appears to me that the U.S. arms industry is dependent on the U.S government ginning up wars, picking a side to be the “good guys,” then shipping arms to the “good guys,” paid for, or at least subsidized, by U.S. taxpayers, using fiat currency created out of, and backed by, absolutely nothing.
This merry go round is destined to grind to a halt, sooner or later. The only question is when, as far as I can see. Appears to me we are already seeing the beginning of the end, as evidenced by China (the world’s largest economy) striking deals to trade with other countries in yuan, not dollars.
JMO, and I am not an economist, only a private citizen of U.S.
Are we sure it was the tariffs that “we” (not our wise, ever-knowing over-lords) imposed on the market instead of the currency being made of silver and international trade still having some restraint in gold?
A lot of my conservative friends like Elon Musks dalliances with Twitter and whatnot. Like Eric has repeatedly said, he’s rent seeker. I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. I will start to like him if he starts building IC cars. Anything’s possible, but I’m sure that it is wishful thinking.
‘EV mania is just that. A mania.’ — eric
Only after it collapses will the full scope of EeeVee Fever be apparent: bankrupted manufacturers; white elephant assembly and Battery Baloney plants; deserted and vandalized charger stations. In short, a new Rust Belt; an American wasteland.
In retrospect, EeeVee Fever will be seen as an extraordinary popular delusion, fueled by the most reckless, clueless (and probably intoxicated) members of our society: politicians.
Trust me, you don’t want to run into dirty old turtle Mitch McClownell when he’s deep into his Maker’s Mark … naw.
This month, with the US fedgov held hostage to the debt limit, we can strike the first blow against EeeVees. House Republicans passed a debt ceiling bill yanking EeeVee subsidies. Today I’m writing my Senators, urging them to kill the EeeVee subsidies in whatever bill is finally negotiated between the two chambers.
This is our chance to bad-mouth EeeVees, with some practical effect. Yesterday even some of my Democrat-leaning relatives were expressing disgust at having EeeVees shoved down our throats, and admiration for Toyota and Honda resisting the lemming rush to a pie-in-the-sky all-electric future. My spirits soared as liberal relatives hurled contempt at GM and EeeVee Mary. Yesssss … they’re coming around!
Indeed, Jim!
And, I agree – the time to strike is now (and hard). We have a real chance to derail this mess. It’s very much akin to Diaper Refusal and how that led to the utter discrediting of Diapering. Pour on the coals!
Why are they still Democrats? Why?
Were EV’s a “flash in the pan”. We will only know when the mania subsides and we look into a rear view mirror. I would say the EV mania occurred simultaneously with the end of the trend temperature spike, the modern warming period, which I believe has ended. Electric cars like warm weather, not ice age weather.
EV’s may go down as one of the greatest malinvestments of all time, along with those windmills. Shutting down coal fired electrical plants at the start of a new mini ice age may be also another foolhardy thing. And why is burning coal so bad, all that carbon in coal used to be in the air.
A past mania comes to mind, the South Sea Bubble, which fooled Isaac Newton:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-er769KmH2WU/TnbMYtsRGQI/AAAAAAAAByY/pMXUIMeU__E/w1200-h630-p-k-no-nu/isaac-newtom-and-south-sea-.gif
Isaac Newton is considered one of the smartest men to have lived, and got sucked into a financial mania, and lost big. This is important to wrap your mind around, humans are herd animals, and even the smartest in the room can get caught up and fooled.
Robert Prechter, of the Elliott Wave Theorist, initiated a new discipline to understand how markets move, called Socionomics:
” Socionomics is the study of social mood and its influence over social attitudes and actions. More specifically, it seeks to understand how social mood regulates the overall tenor and character of social behavior in areas such as politics, pop culture, financial markets, and the economy.
Socionomic theory proposes that leaders and their policies are virtually powerless to change the social mood and that their actions in the aggregate express social mood rather than regulate it.”
EVs could be a huge popular delusion, the auto makers got caught making bad investment decisions because the politicians subsidized electrics because of a belief in global warming caused by CO2. But that theory is not only fully debunked, the weather is getting cooler – and thus these forces have to work themselves out in public perception.
I am no expert in any of this, I am only a day laborer who reads alot and makes pointed commentary on our insane culture, and the one thing that really makes me doubt the viability of EV’s is the subsidies, because I know that for a new technology to replace an old one, there is usually a 3x advantage. With EV’s there is no advantage, on disadvantage.
As things stand right now, the heat value of a gallon on gasoline still beats battery technology, and thus EVs are still a no go at the current level of technology. And for Christ’s sake, the ICE engine has been perfected – so why change horses now?
Perhaps the politicians aren’t intoxicated. More likely they’re suffering the delusional effects of long syphillus.
Proof once again that value is subjective: it exists only in the mind of the consumer.
With this blatant attempt at FORCING EVs down everyone’s throats, plus the impending roll out of CBDC, what else might the Biden Thing try to FORCE down our throats? They already shoved LGBTQ/ transgenderism stuff down the military’s throats and tried to FORCE millions of Americans who have a job to take an experimental pharma product that turned out to be NOWHERE near what it was sold as to the public until the Supreme Court (thankfully) said they couldn’t do that, and they even had mandates for service members to take that jab until Congress passed a bill overturning that. Will Bill Gates be lobbying the government to shove eating lab grown meat or artificial food down our throats, considering he has money invested in companies that make artificial food? He could claim that such food will “Saaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaave the planet from cliiiiiiiiimate change.”
I think the CBDC’s are the worst-a line in the sand, if you will. With that implemented, the Feds have their gun registration list, and every other registration list that they have ever dreamed of having on every single American. Every tax they have ever dreamed of they can force on us, because they will simply deduct it from our digital accounts, and we have no say in the matter. We have no say in what we buy, when we buy it, how much, or how often. They can shut off our accounts at will, drain them entirely at will, and there is nothing anyone can do about it. Big Brother’s all-seeing eye will be everywhere. I am not sure (not folks in this group, mind you) Americans truly understand what that means, because they have had it good their whole lives. Only those who grew up in hell know what is coming. But to try and warn others is akin to being brushed off as being paranoid. Until we end up being right, and then we are crucified for the sake of the stupid, and their wounded, gutted pride.
John, you will have fun knowing what crazy Bill is really up to now and most folks don’t know yet. for years, natural health and research folks have known that we age and get more diseased as years pass because our body is designed to retreat and die. one of the big things limiting lifespan is cell senescence. cells die off but don’t leave the body and block/prevent new cells being made to regenerate the body. those folks have found that extracts from natural fruits/plants with high amounts of certain substances can eliminate the faulty cells and allow new growth. examples that can be purchased cheaply are; grapeseed extract, fisetin,apigenin and quercetin. then you supplement with growth factor supplements like NMN/NAD/NR to boost the body and live longer. now Gates and the super rich have started a pharma company to add drugs like metformin(useless) to the NMN and got the FDA to remove NMN from the supplement market so you can’t get it. in 2025 they plan to release the new “longevity” drug to the market and your MD will give you a RX for the expensive drug that will not be covered by insurance to make them all richer. it will work but you can/could get the NAD precursors cheaply before Gates and others stop you and the process does make your health better and life longer by stopping the main factor in the aging process. yes, he does invest in crickets and fake meat factories too!
I can see the writing on the wall:
Cash for clunkers II coming soon!
“Clunkers” being defined as anything with an ICE – even 1-3 year old cars.
That is how they will “Stimulate” demand.
We could also “Stimulate” demand for housing (pending sales are anemic right now) by carpet bombing suburbia. This would stimulate both housing construction AND Raytheon.
Win-win!
Exact same logic – or lack thereof.
I also envision a “Cash for Clunkers 2.0” coming; possibly this time the plebes will realize they’re being screwed and will give it a hard pass. My 20 & 22 year old Corollas will be still running when the EV’s immolate themselves with battery fires.
If the Biden Thing does Cash for Clunkers 2.0, they might say that the ONLY vehicle people will be “allowed” to buy using it is an EV.
Just need a show of hands in any crowd to determine if there is a possibility of selling more than a few EV’s. You’ll have your answer.
It is a supply and demand issue, if there is a supply and no demand, you will be left holding the bag.
Army surplus, not much demand for combat boots unless you wear them to work, then they’re work boots. Plenty of surplus outlets in and around Seattle.
There is demand for cannabis, consequently, there is ample supply. Been that way for a long time.
Elon is knows all about the efficacy of cannabis, should be a lesson there for him and how to market a product that people want, they’ll feel better, the car becomes an asset, not a liability.
You can lead a bull to the whatchamacallit but you can’t make him stampede.
The left ruins everything it touches from lightbulbs, to cars, to taking a wiz. Look at bud light’s sales down by 25% bc reinventing itself as tranny fluid. Perhaps the he-she-dude-chick-whatever thing can pitch EVs. It’d almost guarantee the destruction of the ‘industry’.
Brilliant. ‘Ask Dylan Mulvaney about his electric Hummer.’
That should kill GM for good. 🙂
You guys might like this post. I copied & pasted it from a friend on Facebook. I am not sure where “Rocksprings” is, though…and “whoops”…..
Towed my first EV Today… a brand new $90,000 electric pickup from the rest area on South Pass to Rocksprings… he had charged in Riverton enough to go 120 miles, but ran out of kilo-volts halfway over the mountain (about 60 miles) so you might want to make sure your tank is full of electrons before tackling any mountain passes
Tommy Boy loses $60,000 on every EV pushed out the door?
You can get a good look at Bankruptcy by sticking your head into a financial ledger, but wouldn’t you rather take the accountant’s word for it?
More $35,000 Maverick Lariats are coming from Ford Blue.
And, please, they don’t cost *that* much more to make than the base model.
That’s just the number provided for stupid people who never mass produced anything or gave it more than one second’s thought. Of course they’re losing money on these things. They’re front-loading all the design and factory tooling -as one does when rolling out a new product. Moron business “journalists” who would rather be covering the Hollywood beat will parrot whatever the Ford spokes-chatbot throws out there without any comprehension of how a mass produced product is made.
And by putting that number out in everyone’s mind, when the CEO comes trolling around Washington for another subsidy fix the skids are already greased.
The acronym I always saw when i had a transportation infrastructure-related job for a few years was MaaS — Mobility as a Service.
You will own nothing and everything will be included in one monthly price except for the tolls on the roads, including surface streets. And only on the day you are permitted to use the roads.
I agree … I think there are three niches that EEEEVVVVs fall into…The go fast at any cost fans, but how many people have a McLaren, I still have never seen one in real life. Short distance commuter cars, like a VW eGolf which never leave the suburbs and what I think the manufactures are holding out for….government. I think you see more electric trucks in places like schools, city maintenance and “company” cars for the bureaucrats and other drones. In about 5 years when even those people realize their limitations, you will start to see farm fields converted into parking lots which will then turn into toxic waste sites. Then the government can spend more millions on fixing that problem.
David, it’s already happening in Gov/Muni. NYC uses their garbage trucks to plow too, their first attempt at E-garbage trucks plowing didn’t work our very well. A novice Engineer could have figured that out in about 5 minutes (constant load pushing snow). So now, I’m guessing, they will need 3-4 E-garbage trucks to do what one diesel unit did.
Also, Spokane (and I’m sure many others) are rolling out E-public transport buses, and are already saying they have to re-charge during a route, which will slow service.
What’s so fun to see is they say everything about them is a benefit, zero disadvantages. And most will and do believe.
https://www.spokanetransit.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/20220217-City-Line-Bus-FAQ.pdf
Of course there is zero mention/stories/studies about how much diesel buses use cost.
These electric busses will only be a thing until one day there is a battery fire on an occupied bus and a whole bunch of people (or worse, children) burn to a crisp or suffocate on the toxic fumes before they can escape.
I think market saturation is already a done deal. Perhaps well above saturation. Last I heard, about 80% of EV owners do not intend to buy another.
I cannot imagine how FedGov is going to have the carmaker’s back by disposing of ICVs, which many can afford, and want. All that accomplishes is reducing the market by 75% or more since a great many that can afford an ICV, cannot afford an EV. If FedGov increases the cost of owning an ICV to parity with EVs, that just means they won’t be buying any cars.
Regarding “transportation as a service”, if it comes to that people are going to curtail their driving, considerably. Reducing revenue from that “service” to well below former revenue from sales.
Carmakers have signed a suicide pact by accommodating the FedGov’s “zero emissions” mantra. If this course doesn’t change, most of the current car makers won’t be in business 5 years from now.
They deserved their fate. I saw the handwriting on the wall 30 years ago. In 2000, as an engineer at Thomas built Buses, I got to meet with Caterpillar to discuss electrical changes to the new upcoming engine ECU’s for the 2002-2006 emissions changes. From my standpoint, there wasn’t much, so I just listened. They tallked about selective catalytic reduction, Particulate traps, and EGR pumps. I asked how much was that going to cost? The figure I heard was about 4-7k per engine.
I told them that that was preposterous, they would be out of business and they would have been better off trolling the capital to see if they couldn’t buy off a congress person or two to loosen the pending standards. The Caterpillar representatives just kind of stared at me like I was crazy and then yammered something about “compliance” and not being able to do anything about it. I just walked out and said have a nice day.
In 2009, they were out of the on highway diesel engine market.
There you go.
Nothing, and I mean NOTHING, has the ROI that comes close to the ROI of buying off a Congress Critter!