One of the things incoming President Trump has promised to do is apply tariffs to vehicles (among other things) not made in the USA – ostensibly to encourage the manufacturing of vehicles in the USA. The underlying argument in favor of tariffs being that imported vehicles have an unfair competitive advantage because labor (and regulatory) costs are lower outside the USA – which is absolutely true.
Why else do you suppose GM and Ford and Ram have manufacturing operations south of the border? Hecho en Mexico? Then bring north of the border and sell here? The answer, of course, is that it’s cheaper to manufacture vehicles south of the border – which is another way of saying more profitable, as the vehicles manufactured outside the USA aren’t cheaper to buy in the USA on account of having been been manufactured in Mexico.
Note the distinction.
Tariffs – which is just another way to say taxes – will do what the application of taxes always does: It will make the taxed item cost more rather than less.
If Trump follows through on his promise, what will happen is that vehicles will cost more rather than less. Not just those made outside the USA, either. A kind of rip tide will be created that increases the costs of vehicles, generally – irrespective of where they’re made. This will not make America great again.
But it will make vehicles even more expensive. Again.
There is another option but it is not likely Trump will choose it because it isn’t protectionist (or corporatist) and Trump is exactly that. He may mean well. But meaning well isn’t worth much when the outcome is terrible; viz the “beautiful” drugs that many Trump supporters don’t fault him for pushing . . . because he meant well.
So – what’s the other option?
The free market.
If one were allowed, Americans would be able to buy any of a plethora of low-cost vehicles, among them the Toyota HiLux Champ you may already know about – and know you’re not allowed to buy in the USA because the federal government says this little pick-up is “unsafe” – which it is not. But it isn’t compliant with every Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standard (FMVSS).
The distinction is significant.
A vehicle that hasn’t got turn signal lights the exact size and placement as specified by the FMVSS – or just two rather than six airbags – is not compliant.
But is it in fact unsafe?
Most people hear “unsafe” and they automatically think a vehicle so described is defective in some way; that it is likely to crash because its wheels fall off while it is moving or the brakes fail when applied or something along those lines.
But – in the context of the FMVSS, to which new requirements are regularly added – any vehicle that does not comply with all of the latest requirements is “unsafe” per the regs and for that reason illegal to sell (as a new vehicle).
That this is absurd is easily proved.
Just consider whatever it is you’ve got in your garage right now. It is probably not not brand-new and if it is more than about five years old, in all likelihood, it would not be compliant with the latest FMVSS requirements and so illegal to sell again – as a brand-new vehicle.
Does your not-new vehicle feel unsafe to you? If it does, why are you still driving it? Even if what you are driving is brand new and so fully compliant, it won’t be as soon as the next FMVSS “standard” is issued. That might be next year. It absolutely will be within the next two or three. Should you stop driving it then? Because it is no longer “safe”?
The FMVSS is just a tool by which cars are made more expensive to purchase – kind of (a lot like) the way tariffs are used to make cars more expensive, using a false premise to trick people into accepting it.
So, one thing Trump could do – rather than impose taxes (whoops, “tariffs”) would be to get the federal government out of the “safety” business altogether. Courts exist to deal with claims having to do with defective or shoddy products and any harms they cause people who purchased them.
Our “safety” is none of the government’s legitimate business – in a free or even sort-of free society.
Because the government is not our parent – and parents are the only people whose concern for the safety of their children is legitimate. Grown adults are not children and if they wish to purchase a new vehicle that is not “compliant” with every line of the latest FMVSS, that is their right. More to the point, there should be no such thing as the FMVSS at all – for the same reason that there should be no such thing as a federal rulebook decreeing that bell bottom cords are illegal to sell because they are out of style.
So what if a basic little truck like the HiLux Champ doesn’t have six or even four air bags? Or any, for that matter. No one is forced to buy it. Ergo, no one if forced to put their “safety” at “risk.”
The point is that people ought to be free to buy it if they are ok with it. If they prefer a $13k vehicle that meets their needs over a $30k vehicle that complies with government edicts.
That is a much better argument for Trump to make than the one he’s making – which will only make vehicles even more expensive than they already are.
And imagine the effect on the price of other vehicles if vehicles like the HiLux Champ could be sold here. There would be market pressure to lower the cost of vehicles generally – on account of the mere availability of lower cost alternatives.
That is how a free market works.
As opposed to one in which the government decrees what people are allowed to buy – and applies taxes (whoops, tariffs) to the vehicles it does not want them to buy.
Assuming it allows them to be bought at all.
. . .
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Merry Christmas everyone, and Happy Holidays also. I would like to bring to everyone’s attention the President elects Christmas message, you can watch it here:
Trump hails COVID-19 vaccine as “Christmas miracle” in holiday video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGE8sUThs-Q
Trump keeps endorsing the Covid-19 DEATH JAB, and that is not good. Lucky for me I live in Oregon, far far away from the maddening District of Criminals and their NWO/Globalist/WHO/Klaus DEATH CAP agendas.
Don’t be fooled by the BIG TARIFF agenda when Trump takes office – it may (or is) the plan to crash the economy. No one can save Amerika from hypersonic deficit spending and the after effects if you try to slow down spending, or even balance the budget. Deficits are rocket fuel to the economy, cocaine at the party – and taking the stimulus away could be catastrophic as everyone in the world is leveraged to their eyeballs in debt.
I wish Trump best of luck trying to tame the tiger. Ludwig von Mises once said that once you start deficit spending, it is like grabbing a tiger by the tail, you can’t let go or you’ll be eaten alive. What I think might happen is that interest rates will continue to inch up, just as they have done since 2020, causing an existential crisis as interest on the debt becomes the primary budget item, currently over a trillion a year. As the world rapidly accepts and joins BRICS, Amerika is going to be left holding the bag, huge debts but no longer the dominant hegemon able to muscle the petro dollar on everyone.
Now that brings me to that Oklahoma preacher prophecy, some hick Baptist preacher named Brandon Biggs predicted online live, that a bullet would miss Trump’s ear, that Trump would survive the assassination attempt, turn to the Lord “on fire for Christ”,
note in the posted video above Billionaire Trump endorses Christ (ding, ding, ding)
The preacher also said Trump would get elected, all charges dropped, and take office. So far his predictions are batting 1,000. Then he said, once Trump is installed, immediately the economic crash, BIGGER than the Great Depression comes on immediately, takes everyone by surprise, and lasts 4 years and nothing Trump does while in office can fix it until it goes away by itself.
Now if you all remember, the Smoot Hawley Tariffs are cited as the primary reason for the 1929 crash and depression – and here comes Trump with his big tariff scheme. It’s not like they don’t know what will happen, for crying out loud it is taught in economics 101 at every university.
BTW I am a complete skeptic of all things religious and some hick preacher prophecy, IMO he was probably told the plan, on the CIA payroll – or even V2K (voice to skull technology). Yes Virginia they have an electronic deVICE that can beam messages directly into your brain. You might think it’s God talking to you, but it could be CIA contractor techs in a white van parked down the street.
Also, with all that said, I am quite happy the mentally ill Biden family is on their way out, and that grotesque pig health czar tranny Jew Rachel Levine.
One more thing – the stock market is in an epic bubble of Biblical proportions, and the public is buying up 3x leveraged ETFs on the SPX. Everyone thinks the SP500 average can only go up, so they are buying a financial instrument that is 3x the leverage like they are Sunday hotcakes. Can’t lose they say.
Well … when I was born the stock market went down and sideways for decades, and not until I was in my 20’s did it exceed the level on my birthday. Since the early 80’s the stock market has climbed the stairway to heaven (the DJIA bottomed out in 1982, $776.92, on August 12, 1982).
Now is the time to get out, sell all stocks until both hands bleed. Just tellin’ ya – the BIG REVERSAL is almost upon us, and in fact the top may already be in. IMO the potential for the greatest crash in world history is a very distinct probability.
if he does it , its just another brick in the great reset wall. you will own nothing and b happy. just like the new bird flu hoax. all to raise prices and slowly steal all your wealth. Convid e first big brick!was th
I lived in India for ten years. They have a 100 percent import tariff on all things imported. Then you have to pay tax on the Tariff as well.
So all the auto makers set up shop in India to bypass the 100 percent rule. That is if over fifty percent of the vehicle is made in India you escape the tax.
Smart for them, they need the jobs to provide for the 1.5 BILLION people there.
In the U.S. it would be smart because we need independence and domestic manufacturing is the first thing we need to come back. If you put Tariffs on vehicles made in Mexico imported by let’s say Ford, then those made in the U.S. should be cheaper. The auto companies won’t do that so it’s up to the governement to enforce.
WE NEED MANUFACTURING. And the way to get it is not to import 13K pickups from Japan, although personally I would like to buy one.
Hi Jimmy,
Yes, but how will manufacturing return when it costs too much to be worth manufacturing things due to regulatory compliance costs? That is the main reason for all the outsourcing and offshoring. It costs less to make a truck in Mexico – or a battery in China – because the regulatory costs are low enough that they can be made there and shipped here for less than it costs to make the same thing right here. Tariffs will not fix this. Ending the “safety” and “emissions” regimes will.
If DOGE has anything to do with MAGA their mission should be to slash anti-competitive regulations that masquerade as safety regulations. They said they were going to utilize the authority of the recent SCOTUS decision (Loper-Bright. The reversal of the Chevron doctrine) to slash burdensome regulations. They also need to keep FTC chair Lina Khan.
I’m hopeful bc they are aware of the decision’s implications. But is anybody holding their breath for real change to resuscitate mom and pop businesses?
The USA is going to be truly screwed when the dollar finally implodes. Because of all the “smart fellers” offshoring and pocketing higher profits because:
We don’t make shoes and boots
We don’t make clothes
We don’t grow much cotton
We don’t mine metals
We don’t refine metals
We don’t make most semiconductors
We don’t make bearings
We don’t make cars
Etc
Yes, there is still some of all of these, but nowhere near enough to support our population without fiat currency or import it all.
The 5 years of hard work and effort to start making such things here again (in sufficient quantity) are going to be fatally lean for an awful lot of people.
Air bags produce more harm while working normally than they prevent during accidents.
We really don’t know what will happen with the tariffs which are more of a negotiating tactic for now than a revenue stream. The issue is that every time an ‘agreement’ is signed like NAFTA or anything like it, America gets it in the butt whereas these other countries also have tariffs as well. Granted, we do shoot ourselves in the foot with minimum wage laws and over regulation of the workplace. Trump wants to do bilateral agreements that hopefully benefit us as well. Not saying he will always be successful, but that is idea.
Look at India. The Modi run government told the West to shove it and that they were going to buy Russian oil and gas so their people can have a better life since they don’t have the economic wiggle room to participate in sanctions over a war they have no interests in. Sure would be nice to have a federal government that did something for Americans.
What the free trade libtardians have never explained to me is how can ‘free’ trade work when we are on a fiat money standard, and not a gold standard worldwide? Other countries can devalue their currency at will and so can we.
Take the “Juan Deer” debacle. Does anyone really believe that those tractors made in Mexico are going to miraculously drop in price while American workers hit the bread lines? Have we gotten any better products out of Mexico? On the other hand, illegal immigration did go down from Mexico after NAFTA.
Are those vehicles produced in Mexico worth it? I can’t afford any of them at this point.
Free trade has always worked great when it has been tried. We haven’t had free trade in the US for many decades. You are right that it doesn’t work well with government mandated fiat money, but the means of value exchange is always a part of any trade. Thus fiat money and free trade cannot co-exist. It could be much freer than we have it now even with fiat money but Trump is not interested in that. I have no hope that he will do anything to benefit the average American. He is only going to do things that benefit the oligarchs and politicians including himself.
I still ask where’s the American businessman in all the regulation? Heard of lobbying? They are apart of every rule written pertaining to everything that is a thought in the Swamp. I just cannot imagine the govt coming up with the rules alone nor without input from the cronies. Totally agree with getting the Govt out of the way but it is all by design and picks winners (Big Guys) and losers (Joe Public).
Always curious too if the corporations would be so apt to move to countries abroad without the US police force. Not so scary when you got taxpayer footing bill for military protection and ‘aid’ to those foreign countries. How much does that cost?
Yes, tariffs will raise prices, but which would you rather have: higher prices and more US jobs or lower prices and fewer US jobs? Like many things, it’s a tradeoff. For decades we’ve had the latter, which hasn’t worked out very well. IMO, it’s time to take advantage of… well, our advantage. (They need us more than we need them.) Also, I believe Trump is mainly using tariff threats to play chicken with other leaders, and most of them (especially Mexico’s and Canada’s) will capitulate rather than engage in a tariff war.
Hi Steve,
Yes, but will the jobs materialize? In order for that to happen, labor/manufacturing/regulatory costs would need to come down. Else prices just go up – for everything.
To correct the pathologies, the labor cannot go down, but it’s a small part of the cost of goods sold anyway in modern, automated production. But regulatory needs to collapse, the cost of knuckling under to every moron’s fantasy (AKA compliance) is killing and demoralizing. Also bloated profit margins to suites full of valueless suits.
America was great only because of the individual freedom to try things others laugh at or hate. It will only be great again when and if it’s free again.
It would take years, perhaps a decade to get investment and build new factories in the US. Why would anyone invest in the US when we are so close to collapse? Get ready for the hyper inflation crack up.
… “get the federal government out of the “safety” business altogether.”…getting government out of everything is the real goal. Tariffs become a tit for tat game where all countries can play and the consumer always loses. Trump is far, far removed from the average consumer and American. Despite all the rah-rah, he is quite well uninformed. Need we review his warp-speed death injections?
He makes somewhat bold statements like all the rest of the control freaks without any consideration for unintended consequences. Who always bears the brunt of those consequences? The consumer and taxpayer. I am not anti-Trump per se, just anti DC Swamp. The Swamp will swallow Trump again in the coming years.
The auto industries are so retarded as they’d rather sell a few over-priced pieces of junk into a shrinking market as they now let government dictate how their businesses are run. They lost me as a new car buyer decades ago.
Thank God I live in Mexico!
Wife and I have a 2021 Nissan March and a 2025 Suzuki Jimny 5-door.
Neither are imported into the USA.
Together they cost about $39,000 dollars. Both bought new.
You’re lucky, Geoff!
I have family in Mexico. Maybe I ought to be thinking of bailing out of the land of the “free.” Fred Reed – if you know him – did that.
I’ve never met Fred, but followed his writing until he stopped. Or maybe I just can’t find him?
We’ve been in Mexico for 7.5 years. NO REGRETS.
I’ve started to write about the good, the bad, and ugly in Mexico based on my experience. https://galanbraun.substack.com/
Contact me if you’d like to visit. Ineffective government is far better than intrusive government.
Roger that, Geoff – thanks!
I know Fred a little; he and I exchanged mail for awhile. We also worked at the same joint – The Washington Times. He was the police beat reporter; I was a young editorial writer (at the time). I always admired his writing style and he struck me as a good dude, too.
Looks like Fred Reed hung up his hat in September:
https://fredoneverything.org/a-farewelll/#more-3150
He was getting a little erratic and crotchety in recent years.
I’m getting erratic and crotchety AND curmudgeonly as well. It comes from reading news about ’Murica!
BTW, thanks Eric for including the photo of the GM plant in Silao. I pass it going to and from the aeropuerto—which is less frequent each year. When I do fly, I take Volaris to Tijuana. About half the price of flying to LAX.
Thanks for the link; I will check out his writings.
Well Said Geoff – Ineffective government is far better than an intrusive government…. something I try to explain to people myself about the third world.
Government rules don’t improve safety; they just create new rules that fill up the pages of rule-books, and thus create more money for the paper-pushers. And people get killed in vehicle collisions whether these rules for manufacturers are in effect or not.
My mid-60’s Mustang is as safe to drive as any other vehicle on the road today. Even the vehicle right next to me on the highway that has six airbags. Those airbags won’t do anything while driving. But if they deploy during a minor collision? They’ll make certain that the vehicle will be totaled out because they can’t be (economically) replaced.
Any President that can find a way to just rid the US of the nanny state is the one that will get my vote.
Amen, Kevin!
My ’76 Trans-Am is also very “safe.” I have owned (and been driving it) for 30 years. Not once have I been injured or been in an “accident” on account of it not being “compliant” with the latest slew of FMVSS “safety” standards.
Good luck with fining one of those.
I beg to differ. Without some safety rules anyone could claim to be a psychiatrist, for example, and screw up many more nutbags than psychiatrists already do….
Recently did some work for a friend whose 2012 iesta only slightly came out ahead in a recent contest wth a deer. ront end dmage, two airbagges popped. Boneyard had he bags, and nearly everything else. $40 each or deering wheel and driver’s lower leg bags.
I have to admit I was impressed with the then-current state of engineering on the bags. Both were easily replaceable, came out in a unit with simple fastener system, unplug the wires, replug with the replacements. I spent mire time deciphering the shop manual’s protocol than I did actually changing them.
I still hate the things. My van has bags, and I’ve got a neck injury that could easily turn catastrophic i I’d get my ace smacked with one o those things exploding on me. So I disabled them.
“So – what’s the other option? The free market.”
Because allowing ordinary Americans to compete with gigantic trans-national corporations in the face of a massive regulatory apparat is the only choice.
The free market is not free.
I think the tariffs are good — yes it may increase prices for a while, but it’s better for the future to have things made within the country. Income tax should be reduced to compensate for the tariffs.
But why even think about it anyways — we don’t get to vote on it, we’re just on a roller coaster ride, the rulers do whatever they want to us. I think we should start our own car company and make the cars last 100+ years and make them cheap or free with volunteer labor.
Stay on your meds.
Lol lets all pitch in and buy the tooling for the VW beetle. We can sell stamps while in service to the company, or by paying dues. And when your stampbook is full you receive your car from the line. What could go wrong?
Hi Steve,
I’m trying to save up for mine. Just paid the vig to not get kicked out of the house I paid for; have to pay the fee (no objection to this) for the site’s hosting for 2025 plus some related/peripheral things. Then maybe I’ll get some clear airspace to put money in the old Beetle fund!
Hi Harry,
The thing is, so long as regulatory/manufacturing costs remain high, things aren’t going to be made here – or made less expensive. On the other hand, imagine the boon it would be if young people especially could buy a brand-new vehicle like the HiLux Champ for $13k. That’s about a third the cost of a Tacoma pickup. In effect, a two-thirds discount for a young person who needs a new truck to start his own small business. And consider the ripple effect of that on the rest of the economy. Makig things more expensive will not make America great again.
I hear you. I admit I don’t really know if tariffs right now will work out to be good — because the whole economy/etc is complicated and corrupt right now. It just seems good to me in theory. In general, it is a good thing to not have to import any survival infrastructure items.
During the 1980s I watched Americans selling Americans out. Scoffing up the cheap Chinese products while leaving the American products,,, and the jobs (their jobs),,, and the money the jobs represented on the shelves. It was sickening display of FU to America. Now, broke, out of work, sucking up government bennies, no skills, no education demanding $25 per hour manufacturing hamburgers hollering the previous generations stole their wealth. Sort of like Greta claiming her childhood was stolen by evil people heating their homes, and driving their cars.
Now the Chinese products are going up in price. Government is inflating a trillion dollars every three months while blaming it all on the Fed. No American production to reverse or hold the trend. Americans are crying foul! Trump the savior that thinks he is a king claims he is going to put right what millions of Americans did to themselves over the past sixty years. Yep! he’s gonna fix er right up.
A full scale revolt couldn’t fix it, besides, Americans would likely foul that up. The big bust and break up is now cooked in. Not much Americans and hyphenated Americans can do except stand around and reminisce.
As Celente says,,, when all else fails they take you to war…. stand by.
Ah Tariffs. What a big beautiful word! I probably know more about Tariffs than anyone, I think in the world.
Joking aside, the threat of tax must be credible. It’s America first, not North American Union first. And it’s hire American, buy American. Ford and GM are going to move their plants back. And they’re going to do it too because because any investment of 1B or more and they’ll have their plant approvals. And they’ll pay tax, at a competitive rate to our country, or their IC devices will be more expensive imported, and they will be completely unsellable. As if we can afford cars now, they won’t be built in Mexico because the threat is credible and nobody will buy what they’re selling. I love his strong arm tactic, making them an offer they can’t refuse. It would play well to all our benefit if the loosening of the noose of regulatory burden is in the deck, and I think it has to be in the deck. At least Honda doesn’t quite have their affrontory. At least they hire some US workers. Perhaps buying Nissan is their way of doubling their market share in the US. Carbon Credits will still be around, because it will stay a European Currency of lunacy regardless. It would certainly play well to our benefit, advocating for the loosening of import restrictions, to get US car manufacturers to retool and compete for the missed economy car.
When Trump says Tariff we win. It’s no steps back from where we are right now. Even if we still can’t afford the output of what will be OUR economy, it’s the JOBS I’ve been waiting for. Screwing them over for screwing us over with the NAU is the right thing to do, but I don’t think it’ll come to that. He’s making it clear career suicide to go against his will, and it’s in our interest. It would be nothing short of epic to unleash the free market by killing CAFE and FMVSS and Import Restrictions. I’m glad the threat of Tariffs is credible, as his detractors clearly perceive it to be, meaning we probably won’t have to go down that road.
This will never happen, but one step that would be needed is a constitutional amendment that limits total fedgov expenditures to 3% of non government GDP.
Second is either income taxes OR tariffs, but never both. They both steal from productivity, but buying taxed products with after tax money is salt and alcohol in the wound.
I would prefer tariffs, since we can choose not to buy to avoid them. Not so with income tax.
If you have $5k to cover a “trespassing” fine you can still visit the nicest parts of Sierra National Forest. Quite the circus indeed.
The problems are too many. Re-establishing tariffs alone will not work. Re-emphasize the supremacy of the constitution and its amendments would be a fine start.
Re-establishing the borders should be among the first. Bring the military home. Start work programs to replace welfare. Re-start and prioritize apprentice programs. Eliminate school loans to reduce cost of education. Reduced taxes and permits when starting new businesses. Ease out of corpgov Obamacare back to a private type medical system. Eliminate government power to call for martial law or mandates of any sort.
This is just a start. Once on that road the rest will be easy peezy. Just like trying to get off of drugs it’ll take time and patience.
Why, we can’t just have people deciding what’s best for them. You see, they lack the expert knowledge to make such decisions. That would result in anarchy (Somalia, ya know). Plus, minority and disadvantaged communities would suffer disparate impacts. I guess you don’t care if black, brown and LGBTQ member of the community have no choice but to drive death traps.
Sorry, I had to channel this nonsense, because these are the kind of manufactured arguments that will be put forth to perpetuate the safety and regulatory grift.
Yup
“So what if a basic little truck like the HiLux Champ doesn’t have six or even four air bags? ”
We all know that if you were to get hurt in one of these unsafe vehicles, you’ll be a burden upon society and the healthcare system. Therefore, we have to protect you from yourself for the benefit of “society”
This is what clown world writ large looks and sounds like.
Vote harder!
Any tariff is a government taking wealth out of the economy. It’s a tax, nothing more nor less. Paid by whomever pays for the final product
Orange Man thinks he’s some kind of economic genius despite his multiple bankruptcies; remember Mexico was going to pay for the big, beautiful wall yet somehow they didn’t. Same as he thinks Chyna will be paying for the tariffs that any semi-intelligent person realizes are a sales tax that will be paid by you, the end user. Pucker up WalMart shoppers, better get that big flat screen tv now and stock up on anything else you might need before the prices go ballistic.
I think the mistake is thinking Trump really believes this nonsense and is trying to help the average citizen.
Nothing could be further from the truth. Trump is part of the oligarch class. His “job” is to fleece as many as possible while putting as much wealth into the pockets of himself and the other oligarch.
He’s doing a wonderful job which is why he was placed back at the controls again.
It’s a shame Trump didn’t kick the GOP in the nuts to abolish things like minimum wage and take a good hard look as the regulations that genuinely protect health and the environment. Lowering the corporate tax rate is a smart thing to do for starters and make sure this applies to small businesses as well.
Vox Day points out that Trump and Elon are simply oligarchs that were not part of the club, so they trying to mold it to their liking. I will admit at least Trump wants us to have jobs. I was unemployed under the Zero Negro president.
Some thoughts in no particular order:
-The real issue behind why not much is Made In USA is a burdensome regulatory climate. While no one wants any more Love Canals or Centralia Mine Disasters, many regulations no longer make sense. Another reason is that manufacturers face a greater risk of lawsuits.
-Speaking of lawsuits, the upside of having such an aggressive plaintiffs’ bar is that civil torts do far more to “regulate” environmental, health, and safety concerns than any regulatory framework out there. In fact, one reason why, for example, the E.U. is far more heavily regulated is because the E.U. lacks a robust civil tort system. That said, civil torts for the most part actually punish companies who actually do wrong—not companies that might do wrong.
-Market pressure does indeed work. In fact, it happened some 40-odd years ago when German and Japanese cars came to America and changed the kinds of cars the Big Three made and sold in their wake.
-I think Donald Trump is using tariffs as a negotiating tactic to get concessions from other countries. Remember, he’s a hard-nosed real estate developer from New York. His M.O. is making you deals you can’t refuse. Will he actually implement tariffs? Maybe, maybe not.
The Centralia coal mine fire was due to the yearly fires that were set by the local fire company at the local trash dump.
It had absolutely nothing to do with irresponsible manufacturing.
Thanks for clarifying. The point is that dialing back excessive regulation won’t result in the environmental, health, and safety disasters that were commonplace in 1900, contrary to the fear mongering by leftists.
Bryce,
Point taken…thanks.
On a side note, David DeKok wrote an interesting book about the fire in Centralia, if anyone wants to delve further into the whole matter.
Centralia was still smoldering near the church area, when I drove through a few years ago…on my way to Knoebels Park.
https://daviddekok.com/centralia-mine-fire/
I’m sure Trump’s playing the negotiator game now. No one is moving anything anywhere, except maybe moving production out of China. But that Chinese it won’t be on-shored, that’s for sure. If it goes anywhere I’d say Eastern Europe has the best shot at becoming the next “workshop of the world.” Putin will settle the war, the Neocons will get to keep Kiev, and the lands east of Germany will begin buying energy from Russia and turning it into consumer goods. Heck, maybe Turkey will get in on the act now that they’ve got control of Syria. Or maybe Israel will tie up with Iran and finally finish up the Wes Clark 7. Still have that pesky problem of Eastern Europe being highly dependent on Russia for raw materials, but that’s still solvable if everyone keeps themselves civil.
Or if someone wants to go play in Africa. Labor’s difficult, as always, but lots of stuff there too.
Ultimately there will be some onshore production resuming, but don’t look for tons of factory jobs to come from it. If anything there will be far fewer manufacturing jobs than there are today. Apple is a great example. They are getting closer all the time to a single slab of silicon that does it all. The next iPhone is rumored to contain an Apple designed cellular modem. If this is true then it will likely be a generation or two away from adding the cell modem to the A-series die and integrating it into the A-20. Simplifying the circuit board, reducing parts count and therefore labor. Put all the effort into designing the chip, not running the factory.
I think you’re spot on with Eastern Europe as the new “workshop of the world.” It’s close to the natural resources in the East and the markets in the West. Plus, they have a population with a strong work ethic.
I also think you’re spot on with manufacturing returning to the USA, but with far fewer people working in factories, and with far fewer factories located in major urban areas.
I think the impetus behind moving production out of China is based on both concerns about China’s political stability and move back toward the days of Mao, as well as concerns about disease outbreaks. After all, China is not just where the Covfefe Virus came from, but also where SARS and various strains of the flu came from.
Your thoughts?
Eastern Europe is also culturally Christian. That’s really becoming a fundamental problem with China. Westerners came to China believing the Chinese were playing fairly, which meant they understood sin and death. But that’s not necessarily the case with eastern religions, which are more focused on self and work for your own enlightenment over salvation and sacrifice to a greater good. This is why poverty is still rampant, some of the rumored atrocities carried out by the CCP on Uyghurs and “gutter oil” are just accepted by Chinese society. It’s also why the CCP has created a massive surveillance state to impose morals on the people. When Chinese manufacturers help themselves to American intellectual property without contributing back or install malware at the circuit board level, that’s just chalked up to “you shouldn’t have trusted us.”
When you don’t believe in an afterlife, there’s not much you can do to prevent these sorts of things from happening.
Even if Uncle gave in, Toyota’s dealers wouldn’t allow the HiLux Champ to hit US streets in large numbers with $16k sale prices.
How many Ford Mavericks actually got delivered outside of fleet deals for $20k?
Hi Roscoe,
I wonder about that… in that there is profit in volume. Henry Ford understood this.
The new model of the auto industry – including the MuskRat – is permanently subscription based.
It’s a microcosm of the entire fake economy where those who succeed are all rent-seekers, who are politically or economically/FED connected and given permission to set up toll booths.
Ask most Millenials/Gen Ys….their budgets are all based on the monthly payment.
They’re already onboard with the WEF and the philosophy of “You’ll own nothing….you’ll just rent it all!”
Indeed, Flip –
This began when I was their age back in the ’80s. When I got to college – as a new freshman – the credit card companies all had booths set up. Credit cards? For 18-19-year-olds with no income? I wondered why… now, I know.
Maybe because it is Christmas and I am just a grouchy middle aged woman, but I am at a point that complaining and doing nothing about it really grates at me. I am fine with people venting and then doing something about it…we all have to let off steam. I am tired of whining followed by zero action.
An example of this, my sister calls me grumbling how her MIL has taken over her traditional Christmas breakfast. Apparently, her MIL doesn’t like my sister’s cooking deeming it “too fancy” for their family’s tastes. This is also followed by how her in-laws constantly show up late after the event is to start…usually a hour or more. What is my advice to my sister? Then don’t do it. Don’t make Christmas breakfast. My sister is aghast at this idea. My response was “why are you trying to appease people who will never be appeased?”
Back to the discussion at hand though. Why do we care if Trump raises tariffs? Are any of us going to go buy new cars? Of course not. They are little surveillance trackers. If Trump allowed Chinese cars to flood the market would anyone here buy them? Also, doubtful. Why? Because these vehicles are already available to us if they are 25 years old or older. Are they cheaper? Nope. Does anyone think Chinese vehicles in the US market are going to be significantly cheaper than anything sold by GM or Ford? If yes, I have a beautiful piece of Pennsylvania beachfront property I would like to sell.
We have affordable cars in the US. Are they new? No. Do they need some TLC? Yes. They have all of the qualifications we are looking for though. No cameras, roll down windows, manual cassette players, etc. We can go buy one at anytime. We can buy a 2008 Audi TT for $11k all day long or a 1990 Dodge Ramcharger for about $13k. Affordable vehicles. Not only that but it doesn’t look like every other cookie cutter out there.
On the flip side why are we sitting back and hoping someone or something is going to come along and make us content? It isn’t and they aren’t. When do we take the bull by the horns and tell government and the auto manufacturers to kiss our ass by not even caring what they build because we ain’t buying?
‘I am tired of whining followed by zero action.’ — Raider Girl
Fair enough. Actually I’m not whining about Orange Man Bad’s antics, merely observing. His shoot-from-the-hip hubris will create opportunities, which can be seized with actions.
For instance, on a combination of four fundamental valuation measures (price vs earnings, revenues, dividends and book value), this is the biggest stock market bubble in history.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wp-content/uploads/comment/mc241218e.png
Several actions follow.
In my position on a non-profit board, I just recommended cutting back our investment allocation from 40/60 to 20/80 bonds/stocks. I’d go to zero myself, but some would view that as too extreme.
Short selling is dangerous. But there’s a once in a lifetime opportunity here to bet against Big Gov goofballs who literally believe they’re ushering in a new golden age. Here’s the mind-bending shocker: that golden age already is receding in the rearview mirror.
Except for my wife’s mother, I don’t allow the in-laws in the house for the holidays.
Problem solved.
Got lucky cuz I adored my late wife’s parents and the adoration was reciprocated.
Her mom is still alive & I call her once a month plus at holidays. Spent the morning & afternoon with her a few weeks ago.
The SILs and BILs I could take or leave. Not bad people just, other than my wife, we had nothing in common. Seeing them at holidays & the occasional get together was enough.
Hi RG,
The thing I was trying to convey is that a tax is a tax – no matter what it’s called. Trump is promising to raise taxes – and that is going to cost us all, whether we buy a new car or not. Businesses, for instance, will have higher costs as a result of these taxes – and those costs will be passed along to us.
By the way, I’m grouchy today, too. It’s 22 degrees and I am going to have to deal with that blankety-blank heater core after I get off the air with Bill Meyer!
It was 8 here this morning, wind chill sub zero, sure could use some global warming/cliiiiimate change today. 🥶
Hideous, Mike!
Want to help me with the heater core?
Only if you have a garage with a space heater 😆. My cars sit outside year round, luckily haven’t had to do any major repairs in the winter, and get the maintenance done during the warmer months.
Morning, Mike!
The weather shyster says it’s going to warm up – 50s – today- so the plan is to try to get the heater box out and if I get that done, I’ll be able to access the core (hopefully). Stay tuned!
Isn’t your post really just complaining and doing nothing about it? Ha ha, RG. You are particularly grouchy today. Merry Christmas, RG. I always enjoy your posts.
Touche. 😉
Right now, to overcome my crankiness, daughter and I are going to have a nice lunch. I told her I will buy, but she is my DD. I think after a glass or two of Chardonnay I should be fine. If I can find a decent bakery along the way I will be even better.
Merry Christmas, ML!
“Maybe because it is Christmas and I am just a grouchy middle aged woman, but I am at a point that complaining and doing nothing about it really grates at me.”
Spot on as usual.
Told to take vax or lose job. Resigned.
Told to lock down in MI. Nope not having it. Sold house and moved to parts unknown.
Told inflation is not an issue. Use money from house sale in MI to DIY build in new location (no building codes / no inspections here).
Yeah – not a fan of the endless talk. Wish more people would vote with their feet and opt out of the “system”. Go do something productive. Human nature being what it is, I won’t be holding my breath.
For those that stay, enjoy your driver checkpoints, state mandated “safety” inspections, emissions inspections, building inspections, AGW’s around every corner, sky high taxes, and every other sort of little tyranny you choose to tolerate.
Now if only we could get back to a free market. Barter and buy local is a start.
Rant over.
We moved to Mexico in 2017 before the mini-SHTF began. Can’t imagine moving back. Last time north-of-border was Spring ‘23.
Even voided my Medicare Part B through the embassy.
Vote with your feet is correct.
The problem as I see that almost everyone wants good jobs where they live. If you look at the original “The Price is Right” game show with Bill Cullen he mentions where the prizes came from. That being companies all across America. Now of course most things are made offshore and those jobs are long gone. Is it safe to say that you might have more stuff than in the ’50s but is your life and retirement any better? If people are working less money is spent on bread and circuses for the indolent thereby possibly resulting in lower taxes for those that do work. How many other jobs are created by just one factory? From part suppliers to machine shops?
I get the feeling I’m not expressing this right but hopefully you get the gist of it.
‘Standing before you today, I can proudly proclaim that the GOLDEN AGE OF AMERICA IS UPON US!’ — Donald J Trump
https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1870887140512665727
Sad to say, Orange Exuberance has crested before he even takes office. It’s all downhill from here.
This hubristic preening is Trump’s version of George W Bush’s ‘Mission Accomplished’ speech on an aircraft carrier in May 2003. [Last I checked, ‘we’ are STILL in Iraq 21 years later.]
Now’s a good time to buy a big golf umbrella, as a shield from the coming ‘golden showers.’
Jim: Now’s a good time to buy a big golf umbrella, as a shield from the coming ‘golden showers.’
Eek!!!
I don’t know what the proposed tariff rate is. And it doesn’t matter & in the end just makes already near unaffordable cars/trucks even more unaffordable. Will GM et al start offering up 120-month loans for those who can’t handle the 96-month payment?
Trump’s tariff is a red herring to the right just as the “make corporations pay their fair share” bullshit is to the left.
All costs are passed down to the consumer. Was fixin’ to say everyone knows this but, as Mark mentioned below that 12 years of government education / indoctrination, that’s probably not true anymore.
‘Tariffs … will make the taxed item cost more rather than less.’ — eric
Thank you.
In the 19th century, the US fedgov (then spending only 2-3% of GDP, with no welfare state) got a big chunk of its income from tariffs. But even dramatically higher tariffs can’t pay for Social Security and Medicare and a trillion-dollar-a-year global military empire. That’s delusional.
Kindleberger, in his book The World in Depression 1929-1939, published this ‘spider web’ chart of global trade literally spiraling down the drain in the wake of Hoover’s Smoot-Hawley tariffs:
https://www.princeton.edu/~pkrugman/tradespiral.png
Tariffs are the snake oil of economic quack doctors. In today’s economy, already teetering on the brink of recession, tariffs are the economic shock that will kick it into the gutter.
The Orange Oracle doesn’t see this coming. He’s going to walk straight into the trap set for him, slap tariffs on everything that moves, and then preside over Depression II. He will be vilified as Hoover II.
Worse, Trump’s Folly will set the stage for the 21st century Frank Roosevelt to emerge from the Democrat party in 2028. He/she/zhe will offer a different flavor of snake oil — a full socialist takeover, with large dollops of ‘free’ central bank digital currency and a guaranteed basic income for all. Prepare for post-Trump nirvana, comrades!
Hi Jim,
I don’t expect great things from Trump, but personally, I don’t think tariffs will do all that much. Why? Because people are already not buying. A quick glance around will showcase that the middle class can barely afford Spam much less steak. How do I know this? Because Givenchy handbags are sitting at 50% off. I realize guys have no idea who Givenchy is, but just go with it…their bags never go on sale. Grocery prices have just increased “again” another 10%. Software, cars, houses, etc. have hit another hike. I am looking at financial statements that haven’t looked this appalling since 2009.
The average American is running at max capacity. The credit cards, mortgages, student, and car loans are sucking the breath out of most budgets. There is no room for extras and I don’t see a way out with those in debt up to their ears, including Uncle Sam. Unfortunately, when she falls (somewhere between tomorrow and a century from now) action will be minimal, because you can’t run from an avalanche.
The thing about the US economy is that it was always about the basics being cheap so that you could splurge on something “nice” whatever that might be. When Enron screwed with electricity and everyone in California just accepted the story about $2000 electric bills being the new normal, it sent a message to futures traders and energy producers everywhere. They were leaving money on the table. Food products, energy, housing… all got more expensive just because they could. And much of the reason is because of regulations that favor more costly production. Instead of relaxing housing standards, just make more people eligible for low interest ARMs. Instead of encouraging cheap energy solutions that don’t add CO2 to the atmosphere, such as nuclear and low-head hydropower, just encourage the most expensive solutions available and pray that someone will come up with a viable way to deal with their fatal flaws. And of course all the “virus” outbreaks in the food supply that smacks of “what gets measured” not actually what might be a real threat. Mostly due to the fact that our food system is brittle and so monopolized that any minor issue will lead to a collapse.
Hi RK,
Companies will continue to push price hikes until the purchasing stops. When widgets stop selling and revenue has been decimated then businesses will backtrack and reduce fees.
You make a valid point on the economy being based on affordable needs. Unfortunately, there is zero incentive for this to happen. If people are willing to pay the current price for housing, groceries, and utilities these companies are not going to look at alternative methods where they have to spend money to build the infrastructure and then pass the more affordable savings onto consumers. Why would they? They are getting theirs…to hell with everyone else.
The nice things are going away. That is how it works in socialist and communist societies. Make the day to day needs so expensive that there is nothing left to enjoy. The companies that offer enjoyment will falter and eventually declare bankruptcy. Now, there is nothing to strive for except trying to keep a roof over your head, food in your belly, and a shirt on your back.
I think there was a time after World War II, when business leaders understood that there was a benefit to deflating prices. The nation had just come off a central bank-caused depression, toyed around with socialism, and fought an industrial scale war. I think there were a lot of deals made in foxholes and mess halls too, because the top people were exposed to the rest of us and knew what we were all capable of (both good and bad). The government took credit for the post-war economy, but reality is that I think our grandparents were so PTSD’d they were willing to actually work together to make sure that didn’t happen again.
Remember, staples like electricity and gasoline got much cheaper after the war. Much of that was due to infrastructure projects like the Texas Eastern pipeline and the intercostal waterways, which would never have been built in peace time. I’m not a fan of entities like the Tennessee Valley Authority, but it showed there was a demand for rural electrification and paved the way for co-ops and other alternatives that could tolerate a longer payback on investments.
But since the 1980s or so it seems like the door shut on any new players. Maybe that’s because the country is built-out and mature, maybe (mostly) because the existing players rigged the regulations. Either way the established businesses pulled up the ladder and basically began fighting each other for market share. This led to where we are today: entrepreneurs get funding for building a product that complements existing fortune 50 companies, not in competition with them. Or designing for government entities, that’s always a winning strategy too. Society sees the problem but doesn’t want the solution. So instead we get these engineered crises with the idea that we’ll Build Back Better™ if only we abandon all the existing stuff. Just like the crises of old…
In the 1800’s…on a full gold standard dollar….prices were going down…things got cheaper…deflation…
Now the economists say deflation is the greatest evil….
In 1971 when the dollar went 100% off the gold standard….full fiat…not convertible to gold……unredeemable….prices have gone straight to the moon….$50,000 cars…million dollar houses….
When collector cars and real estate have huge increases…it is when the banks do QE….dumping 100’s of billions of newly printed dollars into the economy….huge inflation….
Tariffs schmariffs are like head lice, crabs on your scrotum.
The MIC and MIC will double their budgets.
Harvard Schmarvard, what complete idiots inhabit such finely constructed idyllic urban settings. Dumbfuckery right in front of your lying eyes.
The idiots there actually think they are smart!
The most intelligent people are the first to admit how stupid we really are.
Doesn’t take a genius to know that. How dumb do you think people are?
The car companies are going to find out the hard way.
You have to remind yourself that Bibi is a collectivist, he doesn’t do a thing to earn money in any way, you pay for his dumbfuckery.
Plus, he’d rather shoot you.
That’s where the tariffs will go.
The tariff v regulatory argument falls flat on the ears of a populace that can no longer reason. It’s a cartoonish method of thought that is based on, “He bad. He hurt us. I hurt him. You be better.” That is the extent of understanding these day.
Yes, it’s the result of a GovCo indoctrination system that proffers itself as Education. Children are turned over to GovCo for 12+ years to be told what to think, not how to think. This was recognized decades ago by Benno C. Schmidt, Jr., then president of Yale some 35 years ago,
“The most serious problems of freedom of expression in our society today exist on our campuses. The assumption seems to be that the purpose of education is to induce correct opinion rather than to search for wisdom and to liberate the mind….Attitudes on campuses often presage tendencies in the larger society. If that is so with respect to freedom of expression, the erosion of principle we have seen throughout our society in recent years may be only the beginning.”
It will take a tectonic shift in our society to regain what we’ve lost. True, you often don’t know what you’ve got until it’s gone but, if you never knew of a thing’s existence you can’t even have that level of cognition.
Trump graduated from the prestigious Wharton School at the Ivy League U. Penn. But what did he learn there?
‘In 2015, [Trump] threatened his high school, colleges, and the College Board with legal action if they released his academic records,’ recalls Wikipedia. Guess he wasn’t on the dean’s list or nothin’.
More likely, Trump regarded college much like the eminent scholar George W Bush, who said of one of his professors at Hahhhhhvid Business School, ‘He wrote a book. I read one.‘ And Dubya can prove it:
https://tinyurl.com/2u9dhuu8
In fairness many of us followed the same path. Yours truly was an honor student from a small rural town who went off to a big glamorous university on a full ride. Where yours truly promptly got disillusioned with the actuality of academia, and fell in with a gaggle of stoned surfers and rednecks.
College degree is/was a means to an end. And it turns out it wasn’t even a very good one, it gets you a chance at a job you shouldn’t want. Engineers work for someone else, are connected, or starve. Was doing fine as a dad taught mechanic, or as a federal wild fireman. Would have retired 10 years ago at a GS20 had I stuck with the Forest Circus. But then I would have missed out on a rich life and an ongoing libertarian education.
‘Would have retired 10 years ago at a GS20 had I stuck with the Forest Circus.’ — Ernie
First heard that term ‘Forest Circus’ from an ex-hotshot.
Now I deal with them on a regular basis. The Forest Service is poverty stricken. They totally depend on volunteers to map, build and maintain their recreational trails.
Last week, I finally extracted a Decision Memo from the district ranger for new trails that we first proposed seven years ago. Our mini-excavator already cut 3/4 mile of tread during this warm winter.
Guilty as charged. I might have known the guy, Hot Shots are an elite lot basically unknown outside the forest fire racket. If someone asks you usually have to explain that you are a smokejumper who doesn’t jump out of perfectly good airplanes.
Merry Christmas!