If you thought used cars were pricey during “COVID” – when new cars got even pricier because of the lockdowns and supply chain disruptions – have a gander at used car prices now.
The average “transaction price” – meaning what a used vehicle sells for – is now north of $30,000, a 5 percent increase over the previous year. That’s slightly higher than the previous high-water mark of just shy of three years ago, at the height of the manufactured hysteria over “COVID.”
But why – given that today lockdowns and supply chain disruptions are not happening? The answer is that new car prices never went back down. Indeed, they have risen even higher. The average “transaction price” of a new vehicle is now well north of $50,000. It will shortly – a few weeks from now – be impossible to find a new vehicle that has a base price south of $23,000 because the last new vehicle you can still buy for under $20,000 – the Nissan Versa – has been discontinued (more about that here).
The dynamic is that as the cost of new vehicles increases, the cost of used vehicles also increases – for two reasons. The first is that demand for used vehicles increases as people are priced out of new vehicles. They can only afford used vehicles, is another way to put it. There is a limited supply of used vehicles, too – which is a compounding factor. The second reason is that when a $50,000-plus new vehicle becomes a used vehicle, it will cost more to buy than a vehicle that cost $30,000 when it was new.
That’s why a current three-year-old used vehicle “transacts” for nearly $32,000 now. Used vehicles will “transact” for even more, probably, three years hence because it is unlikely new vehicles will be “transacting” for less three years hence. The fact that they are already “transacting” for more this year than last year all-but-assures this.
There are some upsides to this. Particularly if you already own a used vehicle. That means, above all, that you do not need a new one – and that is the best way to avoid paying a ridiculous price for a new vehicle. In time, if enough of us avoid paying it, there will necessarily be a decrease in the cost of new vehicles because there will have to be. Assuming, of course, that the vehicle manufacturers wish to continue selling new vehicles. it is apparent to them already that something’s got to give. They are well-aware that their dealerships are glutted with unsold inventory, some of it dating back to 2023. It isn’t difficult to find a brand-new 2024 model on many dealership lots – even though it is just six weeks away from 2026.
And – six weeks from now – it will be even easier to find brand-new 2025 vehicles sitting on lots and more than likely, it will be possible to haggle a “transaction price” that’s lower than the asking price.
The other upside – if you already own a used vehicle – is that for the first time in forever, basically, a used car is an investment because you’re not losing money (as is almost always the case with a new vehicle). For generations, new car salesman have told buyers that the vehicle they’re buying is an “investment,” but it has almost always been a money-losing one. On average, a vehicle bought today will be worth 20-30 percent less than whatever you paid for it within few years and (usually) long before you pay it off. “Investments” such as these are a fine way to end up broke.
But because new vehicles have become such a bad deal, the value of used vehicles has been increasing. Here’s a personal example:
I own a 2002 Nissan Frontier. It is nearly 25 years old – almost old enough to qualify for Antique vehicle tags in my state – yet despite its age, the truck is worth about two-thirds of what I paid for it when I bought it more than ten years ago as a used vehicle for about $7,500. A used Frontier like mine in good shape is hard to find for much less than $4,000 today. I consider that to be a pretty good investment.
It is possible that my truck might become an excellent investment – because the value of used vehicles that do not have LCD touchscreens or drive-by-wire systems or “advanced driver assistance technology” and that can be repaired and kept running for not much money is likely to increase as new vehicles become ever-more-laden with ever-larger LCD touchscreens and even more “advanced driver assistance technologies” and are so over-elaborate and “proprietary” as to be very expensive to repair and keep running.
They will, in sum become throw-aways while the old stuff will be keepers.
So if you already have one, hang onto it. And if you don’t, it might be a good time to get one – even if you have to pay top dollar for one.
. . .
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This sure looks interesting..
https://youtu.be/fHp_nnVjSEI?si=6t2caKPRP6vsb7Lx
Modern 1966-77early bronco manufacturer.
I might be up for one of these. 🙃
They do them for the old 58-84 FJ40 Land Cruisers as well as old Rovers, too.
https://forum.ih8mud.com/threads/chinese-bodies.1318689/
https://forum.ih8mud.com/threads/chinese-manufactured-body-parts.1335301/
https://tpautoparts.com/
Not sure if allowed but speaking of used cars and crazy expensive I’m selling my 1998 discovery 1 zero rust well sorted near Pittsburgh pa $11k if interested email me at [email protected] sorry if not allowed.
My 2008 Subaru Impreza has 190,000 miles on it, a leaking PS pump, a bad and worsening head gasket, bad catalytic converters, a rusted and loud exhaust clinging by a rusty bolt, bad speakers that play only static, it sometimes stalls at idle while at lights unless I pop it in neutral and give it a bit of gas…and probably a few other issues I can’t think of now until I drive it, yet I dread getting rid of it for a ‘newer’ car. My dad just offered his 2002 Camry with 260k on it to me and I got excited about it. But I’ll keep my Subie on the slow city streets until it literally dies as I cannot afford to fix all of these things.
I had to replace the head gaskets early on in my 07, but thankfully was more flush with money then. I sucked it up and paid for the repairs. Am kind of glad I did, given how computerized the new vehicles are these days.
‘People are priced out of new cars.’ — eric
Now socialist Germany is obliged to subsidize electric power prices, after foolishly allowing the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to be destroyed:
‘Germany has agreed to subsidize electricity for its heavy industries, capping prices at about €0.05 per kilowatt-hour from 2026 through 2028—a major policy move aimed at keeping its industrial base from eroding under the weight of Europe’s soaring energy costs.
‘Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Thursday that Berlin’s coalition partners reached the deal after months of debate, and that discussions with the European Commission for approval were “largely complete.”
‘The measure will target energy-intensive industries such as steel, chemicals, and automaking — sectors that have warned repeatedly they cannot compete globally with power costs nearly double those in the U.S.’
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/germany-caps-power-prices-save-its-industrial-base
State industry, comrades — it’s always been the path to success! /sarc
Meanwhile Merz is preparing for a military draft, so Germans can goosestep into Ukraine (stop me if this sounds familiar) and start WW III with Russia. Count me THE HELL OUT!!
I might need to buy one more car to last until I depart this earth since my ‘03 Corolla is starting to lose the rust battle even though it has just under 100k miles and runs like a Swiss watch. Recently looked at a 2016 Corolla but it had a CVT. Ugh. Anyone know what the newest year prior to that that does NOT have a CVT…or touchscreen of course?
The best bets for used corolla’s are the 2012 and 2013 models that came with either 4 speed autos or manual trans.
The 2014; 2015 and 2016 models all had an optional 4 speed or manual but can be hard to find compared to the CVT.
After 2016 the corolla had only a CVT or a manual with the manual phased out some years later.
Eventually Toyota improved the CVT with an actual first gear and what they now call an ECTV which appears to be much more reliable compared to original CVTs.
’03 not gone to rust yet in Boston? You did pretty good.
My ’99 truck is almost swiss cheese, and it spent half it’s life in AZ. My buds ’05 truck is almost gone.
Most mazda’s don’t have CVTs, even today.
from AI:
The Toyota Corolla started using CVT widely for the 2014 model year. For some earlier models, like the E140 generation, CVT was available as an option on higher trim levels starting around 2010.
Prices are higher because manufacturers have to amortize the EV losses over their entire fleets. Green and Woke was a costly exercise, which all buyers will underwrite. Just not at the expense of boards and corporate bonuses.
There’s truth in that, Boxsterguy –
Still, even factoring out the EV losses, the trend seems to be consistently upward. I think because of the lag time built into product planning/production. The assumption is that today will be what they thought it was going to be yesterday. They – the manufacturers – assumed that (today) people would still be able to deal with expensive vehicles and expensive (and long) monthly payments. They assumed wrong.
JAC is a rapidly growing Chinese car company that sells small pickups all over the planet. Perhaps not quite up to Toyota’s quality standards, but likely just as reliable as a Nissan or Ram.
Here is a Swiss add for sweet little JAC T8 with 8,000 lb trailer hitch, 6sp manual and a 240hp 4cyl Mitsubishi engine:
https://autokunz.ch/autos/jac-t8-pro-2-4l-awd-doppelkabine-ahk-3-5t-81048/
Here is a similar 8sp ZF8HP auto and a 200 hp 4cyl diesel:
https://autokunz.ch/autos/jac-t8-pro-diesel-2-0di-awd-ahk-3-5t-81037/
There is no reason why there couldn’t be similar products assembled in Mexico for less than $35K in the US.
The main reason a 25 year old Nissan is still worth 2/3 of its original purchase price is because in the US some Rabbinical council shapes and decides what the goyim in the auto industry are allowed to produce and sell. Of course it is those very same Rabbis who have inflated the value of the dollar out of existence in their never ending greed for more shekels and an ever greater Israel.
It’s not clear why no company has tried to down market. Most companies make inexpensive cars for other global markets but don’t bring them here.
Eric has mentioned Toyota and the Hilux Champ, which is the extreme end of this. But even just their bread-and-butter models could be sold as base trims at significantly lower price points.
FMVSS, EPA, DOT have something to do with this but the clout of the manufacturers could get that changed if they wanted.
Nissan especially seems willing to go out of business instead of adapt. Maybe it’s a marketing perception. Having cheap cars might take the sheen off their high end models. But the U.S. market is trending more towards 3rd world than continued 1st world super power and at some point businesses are going to have to acknowledge reality.
So is selling no cars the better business decision? It seems like you should fire all those MBAs if that’s their conclusion.
The more critical part is eventually the people are just going to have to give the bird to the DOT and EPA and Customs arbitrarily holding back products that we actual want.
“It seems like you should fire all those MBAs if that’s their conclusion.”
Wasn’t it an MBA from Wharton who decided to put a tranny n the Bud Light can? LOL.
Communism has always failed because we just didn’t communism hard enough.
This time it’ll be different.
Over educated morons.
Indeed. Those who say we did not try hard enough never had to suffer under such a system. Not only are they over educated morons, they are over fed, and never had a lack for anything, as well.
Seattle’s mayor-elect Katie Wilson: “We will not allow grocery chains to close stores at will.”
And if the capitalist running dogs nevertheless escape, Seattle will get ‘Mamdani markets’ — state-run Soviet supermarkets.
Yes, we have no bananas!
I remember reading a book on Gorbachev, where-when he toured an ordinary grocery store in Dallas, Texas-admitted that this run-of-the-mill, ordinary grocery store for ordinary people was better stocked than the one for the elites back in then USSR. The fool had to see for his own eyes for himself the benefits of Capitalism (not the crony kind) over Communism before he would believe it. Sadly, those who think we just did not “try hard enough last time” will have to learn the hard way. It is just that they want to force the rest of us to learn along with them-who already know first hand.
Fire the MBA’s? That’s a start, then go after the lawyers.
Seriously.
I worked for a business printing company, checks, mailers, etc., as a regional sales manager. They hired an MBA to run the show. He always had the latest copy of the Harvard Business Review in his waiting area. His background was in garage doors. Five years later the company was out of business.
The man couldn’t sell dimes to a beggar.
Up north we say he couldn’t sell pussy in a lumber camp…
I think it’s just compliance cost. I travel to S. America often and most of their new cars are still old school. So, yes, toyota and the like still make old school. But I recently was in Greece, and was surprised to see most of their cars are like ours, loaded with e-BS from M-B, etc…..
And some brands I don’t know. As for the tons of scooters that everyone rides/drives…. very few hondas, etc… all brands I don’t know, I guess from Asia?
I can only think of an example I am familiar with, an explosion proof rating that some of our products require. It costs the Manuf. $1M to comply…….. for a $10-20K product. They have to sell a lot of them to break even.
I can only imagine how much ‘crash test’ compliance costs, EPA, etc…?
I’m currently driving two 20teens vehicles, both of which still feel like new. Why should I get rid of them? Oh I need to address a minor suspension bushing issue on the Cherokee, but otherwise it still runs like a top. The minivan I inherited doesn’t seem to have any of the issues that are known to plague minivans, and it’s more of a road trip vehicle anyway, spending most of the time in the garage. Both of them are old enough to be at the lowest property tax rate (year 10) in Colorado, which is $3.00. There’s still a bunch of other fees that go to that sticker on the plate, but that’s a real deterrent to trading in anything.
Pretty much any pickup more than about a dozen years old (that is, before douchescreens and cellular telemetry) won’t suffer any more depreciation if bought at a favorable price. My 1998 Fronty cost $5,000 six years ago. It’s probably worth about the same today. But it ain’t for sale.
Something big is happening at the commanding heights of Big Gov. Two weeks from now, the Federal Reserve counterfeiters end their Quantitative Tightening, which shrank the bloated balance sheet they acquired in the covid panic. If Donnie Fubar replaces current Chair Jay Powell with a lackey willing to implement Donnie’s preferred 1 percent borrowing rate, the Fed will be obliged to return to QE — that is, openly printing currency by purchasing US Treasurys with kited checks.
During WW II, from 1942 to 1950, the Federal Reserve fixed the interest rate on long government bonds at 2.5%, though inflation was running more like 10%. It did so by buying Treasuries to prop up their price, which keeps their yield low. By 1943, Treasurys exceeded gold on the Fed’s balance sheet — and we’ve never looked back.
Such interest rate fixing is known as financial repression — a desperate, wartime measure which always means negative returns for savers during high inflation. Now Madman Donnie is bringing it back, with the US fedgov running a 7 percent of GDP permanent deficit. In short order, we will witness the collapse of the US empire, as its finances take a distinctly Third World turn.
But meanwhile, little Israel wants a new 20-year deal to suck more blood from our veins for its shitty little ethnic-supremacist apartheid colony. AI tells me this:
‘Donald Trump did not convert to Chabad Judaism in 2017 or at any other time; he is Presbyterian, raised in the Lutheran and Presbyterian traditions. The speculation surrounding Trump and Chabad Judaism stems from the fact that his daughter, Ivanka Trump, converted to Orthodox Judaism in 2009 before her marriage to Jared Kushner, and the couple has ties to the Chabad-Lubavitch movement.’
Presbyterian?? LOL! I don’t know who to believe. But we’ll find out from Donnie’s reaction to this latest crass Jizzraeli shakedown.
One of the things I always liked about Nixon, he always said his *mother* was a good Quaker. He never claimed to be one himself. It’s almost endearing.
Trump, once again, *almost* gets there but somehow manages to screw it up completely.
One of the Things? That mother fucking, cock sucking, piece of shit prick should have been slowly tortured to death – Quaker or not.
I recently bought for $1500.00 a 2001 Silverado, loaded 4×4 etc. only 219,000.00 miles from an estate sale. put $1,000.00 or so into it runs great. It is a 4th vehicle for us. My “investment”.
Yep. I have four vehicles as well. Latest one is a 2004 4×4 I bought for $2k and put a motor into. Total amount of money I have invested in all four of them is FAR less than the price of ONE new one.
That’s it, for just the sales tax and license fees on a new rig you can get much done on the old one!
Here in WA on 50k vehicle it would be north of 5k in tax and fees.
This is why I keep my old, 2007 WRX. I replaced the original clutch at 219K. Basically wore out the engine and turbo. No safety crap, no touch screen, still have the CD player, not even a tire nanny, which I hear (??) came out the next year. Maybe replace the radiator, as well, which I have done once already. Even still, taking a loan out to replace all of the above and get it tuned up would be a far better investment than getting a new vehicle. Until TPTB make doing so illegal, or to where I cannot get the parts anymore. Yeah, I like my newer (2022) vehicle, but seeing (and reading here) what these “new-and-improved” vehicles contain, is it any wonder older model vehicles are in such high demand? Too bad car makers are not listening (or caring), they could make far more money giving us what they want, rather than forcing upon us what we neither want, nor need.
I see plenty of ads for classic cars that people have restored and need to sell for their next project listed around $30,000.
Assuming the condition is what they say, that seems like a good deal for a redone car with no computers that should last a very long time.
The newest of my 5 vehicles is an ’07 Toyota Matrix with ~300k on it. The interiors of all 5 are 4 of 5 stars and they’re all relatively easy to work on. I have zero interest in buying a new vehicle for all the obvious reasons.
So long as the A/C works we’re fine.
PS: I never criticize typos…for I am their King.
Or the Prince, perhaps. Though he seems to use a spell checker, the Orange Oracle of Oafishness never mastered capitalization. It’s a wonder that he can type at all with those fat fingers. I would like to see some video to ascertain what is going on there. :-0
Will I be admitting to being a bit of a Grammar Nazi when I point out that Eric mixed up north and south?
Eric: “The average “transaction price” of a new vehicle is now well south of $50,000. It will shortly – a few weeks from now – be impossible to find a new vehicle that has a base price north of $23,000’.
All that said, it’s hard to get excited about a 2.00 liter, twin turbo, CVT, nanny car that will most likely be heading to the scrap yard a decade before it’s time compared to 20 years ago.
This is really sad because compared to say 30 years ago the paint is still shiny after 15 years and they hardly rust out as fast but in many ways it’s the expensive electronics and mechanicals that make them scrap before their time.Luckily my antiques keep running.
Hi Landru,
I make these transpositions sometimes. It comes of working long stretches and drinking perhaps too much coffee! I actually appreciate the copy edits, because I don’t have a copy editor. I write the articles, try to proof them – but sometimes I miss things. A man ought to not proof-read his own stuff. But I have to. So – again – I appreciate the editorial back-up!
I proofread my comments multiple times before posting them and then discover bad grammar along with other flaws. Luckily running them through my office software catches most of them.
Hi Landru,
Yup! I recall my newspaper days. I’d read my stuff before sending it off to the copy desk; I always thought I had cleaned everything up such that they’d find very little wrong. I was regularly wrong about that!
I have a boring little Substack blog where I write about radio and drones. I’m always amazed by how easily I can spot typos and errors after I hit the Publish button!
Did I find the right one, two reposts of Zero Retries?
https://gvaviation.substack.com
Mostly my ramblings about things I pretend to know about. Much like my s**tposting here!
Amen, RK!
This is the bane of every writer. You finish something; consider it good. Maybe you’re even proud of it. Then it gets published and you see (and others see) the embarrassing mistakes you let slip by.
Bingo Bro!
Oops….Forgot to mention it’s Suez Canal opening day 11/17/1869.
In aerospace it was always “a second set of eyes” – everything from the mechanics, to my production paperwork, to the design engineers. Tends to keep airplanes from falling out of the sky!
Sparkey,
Yes, Boeing was a company well run and managed by aerospace engineers until they were merged with McDonald Douglas which was run by financiers. The spreadsheets won over the slide rules and that’s why you have aircraft falling out of the skies.
Yep! Mac-Doug, infected Boeing with “snatch mediocrity from the jaws of greatness”. Stonecipher cancelling the 757, Master Class on how to piss off your loyal customer base.
My dad retired from McDonnell-Douglas in 1993. He survived the transition from Worsham, it was Robert Hood who screwed the pooch and put the nail in it. Prior to that it was run by engineers so they overbuilt things but weren’t good with the planning and financials.
Things he worked on are still in use: F-15, F-18, DC/KC-10, C-17. The DC-9, DC-10/MD-80 were fine. The MD-95 still lives on as the 717.
The DC-10/-11 has been in two accidents of course, but the Turkish DC-10, they tried to use a friggin forklift to tip the engine for an inspection and damaged it. Notice the KC-10 variant never suffered issues but we followed the maintenance procedures…
The UPS MD-11, yeah. That program wasn’t ideal.
In a kind of irony when I started my first job after getting out and through school it was with a subcontractor to Raytheon using MicroGDS for CAD, which was originally developed by MD.
Everyone makes mistakes and I am certainly no grammar expert but what is really irritating to me is is those who use the political correct plural word (they/them) for third person singular – almost as bad is saying, he OR she, his OR her, etc.
Hi Doug.
In those situations just use that acronym that encompasses all genders.
She He It -> SHIT
Problem solved and you covered all genders. 🙂
:)..:) YESSIREE BOB!
Proofing things on a screen is never the same as proofing hard copy. I’d do an assignment in college, think it was good, only to find an error that slapped me in the face when I printed it out. For whatever reason, errors on hard copy stand out more, so I’d have to correct the assignment yet again…
That’s true, Mark!
Also, interesting in that it’s curious how our eyes can deceive us. I marvel at the things I see but do not see.
A trick someone taught me years ago was to put my stuff through a text-to-speech app and listen to the result. Your ears will pick up things your eyes missed.
So my process would be …
1) Spell check
2) Grammar check
3) Text-to-speech
Speaking of Grammar Nazi’s; NAZI isn’t a word, it’s an acronym (I had to, I thought it’d be funny lol.)