The Flat Curve

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The latest bring-out-yer-dead numbers are in; it’s just under 500 now. Which is more than yesterday or the previous day or last week – but it’s not the exponential increase the Fear Peddlers promised.

Take a look. The curve is flat.

Not the number infected; that number is skyrocketing – and has about as much meaning, End of the World-wise, as the number of people who get a runny nose in winter. People do not usually die from getting sick.

And most of them are not dying from this sickness.

Look at the graph – an updated (yesterday) version of the  graph published the day before and note the disparity between the blue (sick) and the black (dead). By now, shouldn’t more than just 500 or so people out of 20,000 be in the black, so to speak?

The fact that they are not is persuasive evidence of the hype and hysteria being more lethal than the WuFlu itself. Last year, armed government workers killed about twice as many Americans as have been laid low by WuFlu so far. Why no calls to house-arrest these obviously dangerous AGWs?

How about cars? Around 35,000 people are killed in motor vehicle accidents in this country each year. WuFlu will have to kick things up impressively to match that tally.

Even in Italy – the “worst case” of WuFlu so far –  only about 4,000 people have gone black since the country was locked down. That’s 4,000 – out of a population of 60 million.

You do the maff – and then gauge the risk.

We are a nation of 330 million – all of us (except those of us who work for the government) now at risk of losing our shirts and our peace. The depression that’s being created will mean much worse than worrying about making your next car or mortgage payment. It will mean a Lockdown Life – protecting whatever you have from either the Free Shit Army whose ranks are now swelling or from a Hut! Hut! Hutting! by government thugs, using the FSA as the excuse to lock down your life and then take your stuff, too.

People are being browbeaten with fear – and if that doesn’t work, then outright threats – by people and interests who have something to gain from all of this. Cui bono? 

It bears serious thinking about.

How convenient that Orange Man – unremoved by Mueller or Schiff – now faces removal by economic collapse, which will be blamed on him.

Whatever your opinion of the Orange Man, there is no denying he made a great many of the right enemies – and those very enemies now stand to profit from Corona Fever. This includes the Deep State apparatchiks who regard themselves as our overlords, to be obeyed because they know best..

Corona Fever is also accomplishing what the Climate Crisis has not been able to – the creation of a state of literal arrested development. Perhaps perpetual.

No more work, no more industry; a renascent primitivism which – mark this – will accomplish every line item in the Agenda 2030 portfolio – including the herding of the populace into urban “cores” where they will move when allowed by foot or “public” transport only, where they will be assigned small apartments – perhaps bunks only – and told where they will toil, for how long and how.

There will be no more driving where you like, whenever you want to – in your private car, without anyone’s by-your-leave. No more house in the country. No more anything, except that which they allow us, our reward for “keeping us safe.”

Perhaps there will be Victory Gin at the end of the day.

. . .

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  1. Deaths trail by at least 2 weeks to a month. Deaths are on an exponential curve still. You are deliberately using a graph that hides the slope of the death curve. Go into excel and enter the death data and the date for each. Then create a line graph with date as the X axis. Click on the number of death axis and then right click on that. On the pop up select Format Axis. Towards the bottom there is an option to change to Logarithmic Scale. Check that box. Go back to look at the chart. If the line is now a straight line with a positive slope it means growth is exponential. If the line starts curving towards horizontal it is not exponential growth. The line in the US death chart is a straight line, meaning growth is exponential. Comparing this to a model that has 2.1 million Americans dead by July 4th, we are currently 11 days ahead of projections, or 346% above the model. Hopefully the social isolation will have the death number trend lower. But it will probably be another 2 weeks or more until that happens.
    Here is the data to punch in to Excel if you don’t have it.
    3/5 12, 3/6 15, 3/7 17, 3/8 21, 3/9 26, 3/10 27, 3/11 31, 3/12 38, 3/14 51, 3/17 94, 3/18 117, 3/19 160, 3/20 219, 3/21 279, 3/24 588.
    I don’t have all the days but this is enough to see not only the exponential growth, but the increase in the rate of this growth.

    • Hi Maga,

      I’ll believe “exponential death” when there is exponential death. As of now, there are a relative handful of deaths – the majority of elderly and infirm people/people with other health problems.

      I don’t believe in accepting a “lockdown” – a police state – on the basis of projections and what-ifs. The stakes are just too high. I’d rather risk a catastrophe than assure one.

      PS: How come most or even a lot of the people on those Corona Cruise Ships aren’t dead?

      • Eric,
        Exponential growth and how fast numbers compound is one of the things the human mind has difficulty understanding. I outlined a way to see that the death numbers are growing exponentially, but you claim it is not exponential. Fine, that is ok. I truly hope you are right and this thing doesn’t get out of hand. The problem is that the pain in this situation is a guarantee. The timing and duration is not. It can be short at the beginning or prolonged later. This situation we are facing in America is because of the bureaucrats in the CDC and their massive failure of doing their one and only job, controlling disease. They failed to have an effective test available quickly. Then they failed to isolate and control the spread. It is now beyond that point. Any action that is now taken is going to be painful. This is because this is a new disease. It is related to a group of viruses that already exists, coronaviruses, but this iteration is something no human immune system has seen before. Add onto that that this virus is spreading through aerosols that stay in the air column for over 3 hours and this thing spreads like wildfire. Then this virus has an unknown fatality rate, it could be anywhere from below 1 percent to higher than that. A paper released just recently calculated the fatality rate in Italy at over 5%. These kinds of numbers are just horrific. Then throw on top of that that about 10%+ of cases need hospital care and you quickly have an overwhelmed hospital network. Now you have people dying that would have otherwise survived and the death toll can quickly reach 10% possibly. Also, you have people dying from other preventable things like car accidents, strokes, heart attacks, etc. because all of the hospital beds are full. I could continue as there are many other factors that start to compound. What probably needs to be done is get a grip on the transmission of this virus, get people tested, develop and deploy an antibody test so we know who has already had the disease. Once we can get the number of cases declining enough so our hospitals can get ahead of this thing we can start containing this thing. Also, with an antibody test we can determine those that have had the virus and are then immune from it. These individuals would then be able to go about as business as usual. The problem then becomes how do we do this without turning into a complete police state. The government continues to show its complete ineptitude at every step of this. How we go from here I am not sure, but to think this is something that is no big deal is to have one’s head in the sand. As for the cruise ships, those individuals had access to the best possible medical care. Even still the Diamond Princess is so far at a 1.4% death rate and there are still 15 people in critical care. This is a quick moving virus that kills people very slowly.

        • Hi Maga,

          There is the possibility of a relatively small number of people, mostly old/or with underlying conditions that make them more vulnerable to death if they get sick – vs. the certainty of catastrophic economic and personal destruction for almost everyone else, who might get sick but won’t die.

          Why not a urge those at risk – the elderly, those with weak immune systems – to stay home?

          Why force everyone to stay home – and grenade their lives? You realize that destitute people starve and freeze to death, right? That hopeless people who’ve lost everything get violent. That society will disintegrate if half the country is out of work.

          Might as well be dead – because life won’t be worth much then.

          During the 2018-19 flu season, about 35 million people in the US contracted the flu and about 34,000 died (CDC). This flu season, an estimated 32 million people have gotten the flu, with 310,000 hospitalizations and 18,000 deaths.

          Does this justify a police state?

          If not, why Corona?

          • Everyone should do what they want. Right now, the sun is blazing so Vit D is easily had by all and that kills virus and keeps you healthy. Dumbass me, I’ve been taking too much Vit D3 for so long I began overdosing and had to back off. I was missing a zero on the amount of units in the pills but who can read those miniscule numbers on packages and bottles these days? Not me evidently. I feel ok today but sorta overdid the carpentry thing replacing the wash room floor getting it reading for a washer that DOESN’T LEAK. peace b

        • magadorm,

          You betray yourself by saying …

          “I outlined a way to see that the death numbers are growing exponentially, but you claim it is not exponential.”

          There have been approximately 500 deaths over nearly the past month. If you were to plot them on a graph of time vs. Qty. (aka # of deaths), there is absolutely no way that anyone well-versed in math could call it exponential.

          We’ll ignore the FACT that almost all of the deaths were people that had one foot in the can anyway, not to be insensitive either, and for whom just about anything, including the simple passage of a few days in time, could have pushed them over the edge.

          But obviously you arm to know better just like all the hundreds if millions of newly-minted biology/disease experts around the country.

          I realize that in our “opinions are just as valid as facts” society that we’ve created for ourselves in the interests of not hurting anyone’s feelings, that words like “exponential” are thrown around by people that apparently have no clue as to their meaning.

          You obviously have zero idea of what exponential is since mathematically in our country it’s nowhere near that and neither is it globally either.

          But whatever,clone so many people, their mind IS the Toooob and merely reiterating the reiterating of what they see/read/hear from INFOSOC, a global outlet created per the machinations of Edward Bernays to get the herd to go where they want it to.

          No matter how it’s sliced, your use of “exponential” us simply false, which therefore renders the rest of your argument as being w/o any basis and which, as stated, betrays you.

          It’s comments such as yours that make the wise wonder whether you’re one of the thousands of people paid by our government to go onto social media to further the establishment position(s).

  2. I went to “town” yesterday, a town that used to have bidnesses but is fairly defunct now. A convenience store, a liquor store, a cotton gin(for a few months a year), an ag store, a post office, courthouse and new LEO center, as if we needed one or could afford it.

    Nobody at the post office and nobody inside. A key in my box I barely noticed with a tag that said I’m 308, get your package and leave me there. So I opened up 308 and got the package, threw the key in and shut the box. Weird, to say the least. Nobody working in the PO, signs posted everywhere with corona virus directions and nobody at the court house. Nobody knows when there will be somebody at the courthouse and I guess, nobody gives a shit since they can’t take your money when it’s locked up. I’m the only person at the PO and as I’m about to leave with my new set of pepper and salt grinders, a man and woman pull up, the woman in full CV garb and the man(nice day, windows down)sitting there in the car with no protective anything just like me.

    Met the neighbor headed to the same town to get his kids where they turned in their sport clothes and got their lesson plans for the rest of the year. Probably they’ll learn more at home.

    A couple days ago my neighbor said his brother’s pickup had been ransacked sitting at his house in the town where he lives and the hand’s work pickup was stolen. Then he was at the carwash getting some mud off his work truck and said he and his wife noticed this bunch of young ne’er do wells eyeing them hard. Pissed him off and now he’s paranoid about his kids being at home. So he did the best thing he could and gave them my number in case of trouble. I’m 3/4 mile away and if I have to go and there are no-goodnicks there, we’ll have us a good old 3 S soiree and hopefully the kids won’t ever speak of it either. Sorta like the Israeli SWAT team said about killing everyone in the house raid. We killed the kids so we won’t have to go back. Same with crackheads. Fairly sure they’re the same one who nearly killed a friend dropping off his kids to his crackhead wife with a .300 WinMag through the endgate, the back of the cab, the back seat, his seat and into his kidney. And the guys were back on the street before he was out of the hospital.

  3. The economic consequences will exceed the health consequences, by far. Many more will die from the lack of resources than will from the virus, which still hasn’t killed as many as died from slipping in their bath tub last year. You may die if you get the virus, you will die if you don’t eat. The entire event is falling far too neatly into the parameters of UN agenda 21. Population reduction, restricted movement, reduced energy use, total control, etc. In the US, about 250k die every year from medical malpractice, misdiagnosis, and mistreatment. In other words, so far doctors are far more dangerous than C-virus. In fact, that figure exceeds those killed with firearms and those who die from drug abuse combined. So by all means, lets herd as many as possible into a hospital.

  4. Who made president Tweety Bird and congrease the boss of us all anyway? When do The People ever get to vote on anything anymore? This is quite a batch of demons on this planet… whew they’re nasty! Hell is warming up the ovens for them, installing extra burners for extra heat, expanding operations to handle the massive influx of millions of naughty demons arriving soon. The seething hatred of humanity, wow, totally over the top. Very strange. I can’t make any sense of it. They’re all going to burn a loooong time, but they don’t care, they’re partying it up, they think they’re going to live forever in this world.

    There’s plenty of money for MORE “healthcare” and assorted bailouts etc. But there’s just never enough money for the poor people, just not enough money, not like it is just created out of thin air or anything. But all politicians are multi-millionaires of course. Hmmmm.

    Well, this is what happens when the people want “leaders” to take care of everything, and the people don’t organize. This is what takes over… the same bunch that lied about EVERYTHING else in the past 50+ years. But we’re supposed to believe this cartoon nonsense? It’s a sad day on planet Earth.

    • Funny how I’ve never experienced anything that would give lie to what the Fugs said in 65 when the lyrics of the song said “Was George Washington the lesser of two evils? Sometimes I wonder”. He probably was but certainly after him that’s what elections represented.

      I couldn’t vote for or against LBJ but I could hate him and do everything I could to see him not get into office. While Goldwater may not have been a saint, I think he would have been much better.
      I would have voted against Nixon in 68 had I been able to. I did vote for McGovern and very much viewed him as the lesser of two evils if not a righteous many.

      After that it was always a toss-up between two evils and hasn’t changed a lick.

      I would have voted from Trump had I been able to get to the polls but what will one vote do and continuing to the end of the day was more important for me.

      I simply don’t see voting the next round unless something I can see comes up(and it could). But Trump has proven he’s not pro-2A and he proved he’s not pro-1A nor 5A or 10A. He’s working for the very people he said he opposed.

      I certainly wish I were younger but that doesn’t mean I wouldn’t spill my blood even at this late stage.


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